In the light of the latest statements from Washington that regime change (of some sort) in Baghdad is non-negotiable, I recommended reading the latest Chatham House Report (21pp, PDF) Iraq: the Regional Fallout analyzes the impact on the region, including neighboring states, considering three possible outcome in Iraq: i) an internal coup ii) a protracted war or iii) a rapid victory and occupation.
The bulk of the report deals with the impact on each state. As for Iraq, the authors predict that neither the Washington policy establishment nor American public opinion will have the patience to sort out its internal ethnic divisions and structural problems. A "minimalist" military administration is likely, (i.e. an authoritarian new regime rather than the democratization of Iraq promised by maximalists); meanwhile back here, the domestic economy and Presidential electoral cycle return to the fore. An early indicator of what policy will prevail will be the treatment of the Kurds and which insurgent faction gets the nod. Anyway, it's well-written as these things go.
I'm not all the way through this yet, but it's very good so far. Nice find Bruno. Thanks.
Because I'm sort of dim it took me a few tries to find the right link from the home page. It's here if anyone else is having trouble.
A comment from my mom about the Kurds, Assyrians, etc. is probably typcial of American sentiment on the divisions within Iraq: "Who are all these people?"
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In the light of the latest statements from Washington that regime change (of some sort) in Baghdad is non-negotiable, I recommended reading the latest Chatham House Report (21pp, PDF) Iraq: the Regional Fallout analyzes the impact on the region, including neighboring states, considering three possible outcome in Iraq: i) an internal coup ii) a protracted war or iii) a rapid victory and occupation.
The bulk of the report deals with the impact on each state. As for Iraq, the authors predict that neither the Washington policy establishment nor American public opinion will have the patience to sort out its internal ethnic divisions and structural problems. A "minimalist" military administration is likely, (i.e. an authoritarian new regime rather than the democratization of Iraq promised by maximalists); meanwhile back here, the domestic economy and Presidential electoral cycle return to the fore. An early indicator of what policy will prevail will be the treatment of the Kurds and which insurgent faction gets the nod. Anyway, it's well-written as these things go.
- bruno 3-03-2003 9:33 pm
I'm not all the way through this yet, but it's very good so far. Nice find Bruno. Thanks.
Because I'm sort of dim it took me a few tries to find the right link from the home page. It's here if anyone else is having trouble.
- jim 3-03-2003 10:53 pm
A comment from my mom about the Kurds, Assyrians, etc. is probably typcial of American sentiment on the divisions within Iraq: "Who are all these people?"
- mark 3-07-2003 3:16 am