Not much time to post today so must be selective about developments.
Military: Theories about what may be going with US/UK military strategy during the radio silence from the front lines on are getting play elsewhere on DMT. Coalition forces are stopped in front of RG positions, which were likely reinforced over the past day or so. No sign whatever of Iraqi collapse. Even if the weather improves, US units won't be "charging" toward Baghdad anytime soon. It's more likely they will bomb RG positions very hard (remember Kuwait 1991?), especially if they counter-attack. In any case US forces need to wait for the forces heading up the Tigris, as well as the heavy armor (M1s) of the 4thID.
Right now US forces must secure their front lines, resupply, and reinforce. And the UK contingent has its hands full clearing out Basra. Both forces underestimated the numbers and intransigeance of plainclothes Ba'athist irregulars/militia/fedayeen. I'm guessing that coalition generals would like more troops and armor. The talk of a Shi'a uprising in Basra or elsewhere in the south was at best premature.
Propaganda: Over a dozen civilians were killed by an explosion in the Baghdad market, possibly by a cruise missile. Meanwhile US claims fedayeen/secret police executed American prisoners near Nasiriya. Reciprocal accusations of violations of the rules of war will escalate, but typically it's the victorious power that tries the loser's soldiers for war crimes, so you figure out which charges will stick. But US/UK forces need to be seen feeding the civilian population of Basra real soon. Like immediately
Diplomacy: Discussion of possible postwar administrations is way premature. Kos summarizes recent developments on the global diplomatic front. I can only add that India and Pakistan have also resumed missile tests. Are we having fun yet?
$$ Politics: Expect more embarassment over the White House's indecent haste in restricting bid eligilibilty for reconstruction contracts to Bechtel and Halliburton. And who created the fake Niger uranium cake documents and who specifically were they trying to embarass? Rake, rake, rake, that muck. Where there's muck there's brass, as an old Yorkshire saying goes.
Lagniappe: Jump ahead a month. Let's say the siege of Baghdad has been going for three weeks with defenders fighting gamely on amid piles of rubble like Stalingrad' 42 or Madrid '38. Or Paris 1870, or... How many volunteers will try to find their way into Iraq to join a different sort of International Brigade, I wonder? And which borders will they cross along the way? Did you know that the Iran/Iraq border alone is over 500 miles long?
Press reports of Iraqi exiles--including many harrassed by Saddam--returning from Jordan to defend their country are some of the most damning refutations of the "They will greet us as liberators" assumption.
And later you may see non-Iraqis -- Chechens probably, Uzbeks, disaffected Afghanis, Yemenis and maybe a few volunteers from Kossovo and Pakistan, all joining in...
Can I trademark "360-degree rear guard posture"?
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Military: Theories about what may be going with US/UK military strategy during the radio silence from the front lines on are getting play elsewhere on DMT. Coalition forces are stopped in front of RG positions, which were likely reinforced over the past day or so. No sign whatever of Iraqi collapse. Even if the weather improves, US units won't be "charging" toward Baghdad anytime soon. It's more likely they will bomb RG positions very hard (remember Kuwait 1991?), especially if they counter-attack. In any case US forces need to wait for the forces heading up the Tigris, as well as the heavy armor (M1s) of the 4thID.
Right now US forces must secure their front lines, resupply, and reinforce. And the UK contingent has its hands full clearing out Basra. Both forces underestimated the numbers and intransigeance of plainclothes Ba'athist irregulars/militia/fedayeen. I'm guessing that coalition generals would like more troops and armor. The talk of a Shi'a uprising in Basra or elsewhere in the south was at best premature.
Propaganda: Over a dozen civilians were killed by an explosion in the Baghdad market, possibly by a cruise missile. Meanwhile US claims fedayeen/secret police executed American prisoners near Nasiriya. Reciprocal accusations of violations of the rules of war will escalate, but typically it's the victorious power that tries the loser's soldiers for war crimes, so you figure out which charges will stick. But US/UK forces need to be seen feeding the civilian population of Basra real soon. Like immediately
Diplomacy: Discussion of possible postwar administrations is way premature. Kos summarizes recent developments on the global diplomatic front. I can only add that India and Pakistan have also resumed missile tests. Are we having fun yet?
$$ Politics: Expect more embarassment over the White House's indecent haste in restricting bid eligilibilty for reconstruction contracts to Bechtel and Halliburton. And who created the fake Niger uranium cake documents and who specifically were they trying to embarass? Rake, rake, rake, that muck. Where there's muck there's brass, as an old Yorkshire saying goes.
Lagniappe: Jump ahead a month. Let's say the siege of Baghdad has been going for three weeks with defenders fighting gamely on amid piles of rubble like Stalingrad' 42 or Madrid '38. Or Paris 1870, or... How many volunteers will try to find their way into Iraq to join a different sort of International Brigade, I wonder? And which borders will they cross along the way? Did you know that the Iran/Iraq border alone is over 500 miles long?
- bruno 3-26-2003 9:17 pm
Press reports of Iraqi exiles--including many harrassed by Saddam--returning from Jordan to defend their country are some of the most damning refutations of the "They will greet us as liberators" assumption.
- tom moody 3-26-2003 9:38 pm
And later you may see non-Iraqis -- Chechens probably, Uzbeks, disaffected Afghanis, Yemenis and maybe a few volunteers from Kossovo and Pakistan, all joining in...
- bruno 3-27-2003 5:13 am
Can I trademark "360-degree rear guard posture"?
- mark 3-27-2003 7:15 am