Kirkuk, Open City...Kurdish guerillas replicate yesterday's demolition of a Saddam statue. Kurds disagree, but it's not a Kurdish city per se -- many ethnic groups live there, including the Turcoman minority so dear to Ankara. Watch out.

"Liberated" Baghdad is still in violent chaos...looting and arson are widespread and at least one Marine has been killed in one of many so-called "pockets of resistance," which sound more like civil-war zones. Under international law (the Geneva Conventions), the US/UK coalition is now the "occupying power." Its armies are therefore responsible for law and order, protecting and providing for the civilian population. It's not enough to say: "We don't do policing, somebody else can deal with that." You took it, it's your responsibility, deal with it.

Theories about the whereabouts of Saddam and his sons --if they're alive -- fall into four camps: Baghdad, Tikrit, Syria, Russia. Tikrit is certainly possible and the likeliest place for a Last Stand within the country. The Russian option (i.e. a diplomats' convoy took 'em along when they left their embassy three days ago) is plausible, more so than the Syrian one beloved by Pan-Arabists and the Likud alike.

But this would require the collusion of the US at some high level. And such a deal would imply intermediaries within the Iraqi power structure, most likely the Iraqi Army. Maybe that's why it was so quiet during the past eighteen days as to be almost invisible. That's Teheran's preferred theory (via Agonist): Washington wants Saddam in controlled exile, not on trial. Killing Saddam achieves a similar objective -- blocking inquiries into US support for his regime prior to his invasion of Kuwait.

We'll see if the Iraqi Army now reappears to offer its services as a political "security force" -- it's probably the Sunnis' best chance of retaining leverage over Kurds and Shiites. If such a deal was made, when did it happen, one wonders....


- bruno 4-10-2003 5:25 pm

I heard a report on CNN that the Royal Marines are already pulling back, and will be out of Iraq in a month. The reconstruction of democracy must be ahead of schedule!
- mark 4-11-2003 10:49 am





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