Still no real news. The story, at the moment, seems to be Basra. Is there an "uprising?" There are rumors, but not much more. You can be sure that reporters will be rushed in if we do secure the city, so that clearly hasn't happened yet. Either we go in soon, or there will be a humanitarian disaster, as the million plus residents have been without electricity and water since Sunday. That is very bad, and it would appear that time is essentially up. We have to move on Basra immediately.
But without an uprising from inside the city British forces tasked with capturing the city will either lose a lot of men, or inflict huge casualties on the civilian population they are supposedly liberating, or both. But they can't just stand outside the city and watch a million people die.
And Basra was supposed to be easy. The first photo op of the war. Gulp.
The other story is the 4th Infantry Division. My understanding (I'm just getting up to speed on the all the military nomenclature) is that this is the group that would have come through Turkey, but since they weren't allowed they sailed through the Suez on their way around to Kuwait. (I understand they are not on the ships, just their mechanized equipment - they'll be dropped where ever the machinery is unloaded.)
There are 3 U.S. divisions closing in on Baghdad. One from the West of the Euphrates, one just east of the Euphrates, and one along the Tigris. But these soldiers have been fighting for many days and need a rest. Also, they need to be resupplied. The 4th (and maybe more) is apparently necessary to shore up these troops before the big fight can begin.
Supposedly it will be at least Saturday or Sunday before the 4th can join the fight coming up from Kuwait. But there are two other wild cards:
- the many unconfirmed reports of Turkish troops coming over the boarder are actually misidentified U.S. troops. Somehow we cut a deal with the Turkish military and they are letting the 4th through against the expressed wishes of the government.
- the ships with the 4th's gear have secretly landed at Al Aqabah on the Red Sea in Jordan instead of sailing all the way around the peninsula to Kuwait. From here they will cross Jordan and materialize out of the western Iraqi desert to join the fight on Baghdad. This would be Gen. Frank's wild card surprise move.
My money is on the second possibility, but it's still going to be many days before we have enough strength around Baghdad to start the fight. I say Friday at the earliest (with the surprise Jordan route,) or Sunday at the very earliest if they do go all the way around. And it could even be longer. It's a long way around that penninsula (Here's a general map of the region; here's one of Jordan.)
So we wait. Watch what the British do in Basra. And continue our psy ops in an effort to get Iraqi generals to turn on Saddam. This is really our only plan, as far as I can see. Try to draw some RG divisions out into the open where we can crush them, showing our massive fire power - while working back channels to try and get someone inside to off Sadam. Maybe keep this up for a week? Two weeks?
Only when it is clear that Sadam will not be taken out from inside do we launch the assualt on Baghdad. I guess at that point we'll find out if they are going to use chemical or biological or radialogical weapons. If they do then I have no idea what will happen. If they stay conventional, then we go in and slug it out. Most likely amazingly bloody. Huge Iraqi casualties - many tens to hundreds of thousands. Thousands of U.S. and British casualties.
But eventually we will take the city. And then the really hard part starts: keeping the country together. Ugh. Enough for now.
That turned out to be longer than I wanted, so I'm trying again here.
God help you if you're relying on me for analysis, but here's my attempt at an in-a-nutshell version.
The U.S. led forces can easily wipe out Iraqi forces and establish control of the country, while taking very few casualties. This could happen in two ways. The first is for our power to be so evident, that the Iraqi's don't even fight. That is the "shock and awe" plan. By all appearences this has failed.
The other way is to apply "overwhelming force," which is code for bomb the shit out of them. Flatten the entire country and then walk in over the smoking ruins. Fortunately we can't do that because of political concerns (both at home and abroad.)
So the U.S. is in the process of figuring out the correct amount of force to be used. The exact amount is still unclear, but it seems to be more than what was expected. Still, we have to take enough casualties ourselves to show the world that we put our own forces at risk in an attempt not to kill the civillians we are supposedly liberating; but not so many casualties that the Iraqi forces gain momentum and the war becomes unpopular back home.
So while it's true that it looks like things aren't going well for the U.S., matters are ultimately in hand. But there is a gruesome calculus going on at the highest ranks as to what level of pressure to apply, and where to spread the inevitable casualties.
This whole thing should make you sick.
im sick, what do we do......just go on living, working, hugging our friends....i think this is a very sad day for america
where did you get the story on misidentified turkish troops?
"And then the really hard part starts: keeping the country together"
I heard an interesting talk last night, and linked to it on my page. Unfortunately they don't do transcripts at the World Affairs Council, but they do have audio.
Dana Priest discusses why keeping the country together will be such a horrific quagmire -- our utter lack of preparation. We don't even train people how to do peacekeeping. The UN has no permanent organization to do it. They just make it up as they go along, each and every time.
The Turkey troop thing is just speculation. I mean it's true that there have been confusing stories about whether or not Turkish troops have been crossing the border into Iraq. The part about these Turkish troops, who might or might not be crossing the border, actually being American troops is not a story.
I think I got this idea from a comment at the agonist.
I really believe there has to be a second front (I mean a seperate supply line to Baghdad) so that means Jordan or Turkey.
I'd guess the Aqaba route would be likeliest for the 4th, which is a heavy mechanized division. If so, it's going to be a bitch to supply and fuel equipment all the way from Aqaba into Western Iraq. The stuff arriving in northern Iraq is coming in planes which can't carry 50-ton tanks. So more likely to be part of 82nd Airborne, or special forces...As for an overland invasion from Turkey, it's doubtful an entire armored division could cross the Turkish mountains without anyone noticing.
There's got to be a source [satellite pictures? other records?] to check what's been transiting the Suez Canal, no?
The agonist comment board has been trying to uncover such pictures - so far with no luck. I guess some things have to be secret.
Well someone's letting the world know every time B-52s take off from the UK, and you can see the Gulf of Aqaba from Eilat in Southern Israel. Anyone?
Yeah, everybody knows when the B-52s take off, and therefore the Iraqis know when they will hit. Although not always where, I guess. Not sure this matters too much, as they don't have anything that can hit one. But it is very interesting to note the amount of information flying about. Certainly more than the U.S. would like. (Well, unless they are able to drop useful disinfo into the stream...)
Will this become more and more of a problem, in terms of the feasibility of conducting war? If there were millions of satellite video phones in Iraq would the U.S. really be able to invade? Without some sort of surprise in your troop movements I don't think you can take a heavily armed and defended urban center of 4 million like Baghdad. I think this is an interesting technological development. I want to write something a bit longer on this point. Someday....
In other news about the 4th ID, Debka (insert grain of salt) is reporting: This division [4th ID] was to have transited Turkey with its tank force, crossed over to the northern Iraqi oil town of Mosul and headed south to Tikrit in time to take part in the fight for Baghdad.
At the last minute, the 4th Division had to be diverted to the Suez Canal for shipment to Kuwait. In another change of plan, the division?s troops have been put ashore at the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbo, to be lifted by helicopter and truck to western Jordan and Iraq. Their destination there is Al Ramadi (shown on DEBKAfile map). Their heavy tanks will be delivered separately aboard 16 US freighters due to pass through the Suez Canal Tuesday night on their way to Yanbo.
I completely agree with Bruno that supplying all those tanks is going to be very difficult (they get .5 miles to the gallon and thus need a constant stream of tankers coming from the rear to keep the front moving.) On the other hand, will it be so much harder than supplying them all the way from Kuwait? A supply line through the western desert at least doesn't pass through many big towns. And the U.S. needs to pull off some sort of surprise, so maybe this is "just so crazy it might work...." Or something.
Payment for access rights?
Japan announced yesterday it will give Jordan 100 milliondollars in aid to support it in withstanding the consequences of the war led by the USA against Iraq.
Worthy mentioning that the Japanese government voiced its support for the war against Iraq, but said it does not intend to finance the military campaign.
|
But without an uprising from inside the city British forces tasked with capturing the city will either lose a lot of men, or inflict huge casualties on the civilian population they are supposedly liberating, or both. But they can't just stand outside the city and watch a million people die.
And Basra was supposed to be easy. The first photo op of the war. Gulp.
The other story is the 4th Infantry Division. My understanding (I'm just getting up to speed on the all the military nomenclature) is that this is the group that would have come through Turkey, but since they weren't allowed they sailed through the Suez on their way around to Kuwait. (I understand they are not on the ships, just their mechanized equipment - they'll be dropped where ever the machinery is unloaded.)
There are 3 U.S. divisions closing in on Baghdad. One from the West of the Euphrates, one just east of the Euphrates, and one along the Tigris. But these soldiers have been fighting for many days and need a rest. Also, they need to be resupplied. The 4th (and maybe more) is apparently necessary to shore up these troops before the big fight can begin.
Supposedly it will be at least Saturday or Sunday before the 4th can join the fight coming up from Kuwait. But there are two other wild cards:
- the many unconfirmed reports of Turkish troops coming over the boarder are actually misidentified U.S. troops. Somehow we cut a deal with the Turkish military and they are letting the 4th through against the expressed wishes of the government.
- the ships with the 4th's gear have secretly landed at Al Aqabah on the Red Sea in Jordan instead of sailing all the way around the peninsula to Kuwait. From here they will cross Jordan and materialize out of the western Iraqi desert to join the fight on Baghdad. This would be Gen. Frank's wild card surprise move.
My money is on the second possibility, but it's still going to be many days before we have enough strength around Baghdad to start the fight. I say Friday at the earliest (with the surprise Jordan route,) or Sunday at the very earliest if they do go all the way around. And it could even be longer. It's a long way around that penninsula (Here's a general map of the region; here's one of Jordan.)
So we wait. Watch what the British do in Basra. And continue our psy ops in an effort to get Iraqi generals to turn on Saddam. This is really our only plan, as far as I can see. Try to draw some RG divisions out into the open where we can crush them, showing our massive fire power - while working back channels to try and get someone inside to off Sadam. Maybe keep this up for a week? Two weeks?
Only when it is clear that Sadam will not be taken out from inside do we launch the assualt on Baghdad. I guess at that point we'll find out if they are going to use chemical or biological or radialogical weapons. If they do then I have no idea what will happen. If they stay conventional, then we go in and slug it out. Most likely amazingly bloody. Huge Iraqi casualties - many tens to hundreds of thousands. Thousands of U.S. and British casualties.
But eventually we will take the city. And then the really hard part starts: keeping the country together. Ugh. Enough for now.
- jim 3-26-2003 1:29 am
That turned out to be longer than I wanted, so I'm trying again here.
God help you if you're relying on me for analysis, but here's my attempt at an in-a-nutshell version.
The U.S. led forces can easily wipe out Iraqi forces and establish control of the country, while taking very few casualties. This could happen in two ways. The first is for our power to be so evident, that the Iraqi's don't even fight. That is the "shock and awe" plan. By all appearences this has failed.
The other way is to apply "overwhelming force," which is code for bomb the shit out of them. Flatten the entire country and then walk in over the smoking ruins. Fortunately we can't do that because of political concerns (both at home and abroad.)
So the U.S. is in the process of figuring out the correct amount of force to be used. The exact amount is still unclear, but it seems to be more than what was expected. Still, we have to take enough casualties ourselves to show the world that we put our own forces at risk in an attempt not to kill the civillians we are supposedly liberating; but not so many casualties that the Iraqi forces gain momentum and the war becomes unpopular back home.
So while it's true that it looks like things aren't going well for the U.S., matters are ultimately in hand. But there is a gruesome calculus going on at the highest ranks as to what level of pressure to apply, and where to spread the inevitable casualties.
This whole thing should make you sick.
- jim 3-26-2003 1:56 am
im sick, what do we do......just go on living, working, hugging our friends....i think this is a very sad day for america
- Skinny 3-26-2003 2:21 am
where did you get the story on misidentified turkish troops?
- dave 3-26-2003 2:26 am
"And then the really hard part starts: keeping the country together"
I heard an interesting talk last night, and linked to it on my page. Unfortunately they don't do transcripts at the World Affairs Council, but they do have audio.
Dana Priest discusses why keeping the country together will be such a horrific quagmire -- our utter lack of preparation. We don't even train people how to do peacekeeping. The UN has no permanent organization to do it. They just make it up as they go along, each and every time.
- mark 3-26-2003 2:58 am
The Turkey troop thing is just speculation. I mean it's true that there have been confusing stories about whether or not Turkish troops have been crossing the border into Iraq. The part about these Turkish troops, who might or might not be crossing the border, actually being American troops is not a story.
I think I got this idea from a comment at the agonist.
I really believe there has to be a second front (I mean a seperate supply line to Baghdad) so that means Jordan or Turkey.
- jim 3-26-2003 2:59 am
I'd guess the Aqaba route would be likeliest for the 4th, which is a heavy mechanized division. If so, it's going to be a bitch to supply and fuel equipment all the way from Aqaba into Western Iraq. The stuff arriving in northern Iraq is coming in planes which can't carry 50-ton tanks. So more likely to be part of 82nd Airborne, or special forces...As for an overland invasion from Turkey, it's doubtful an entire armored division could cross the Turkish mountains without anyone noticing.
There's got to be a source [satellite pictures? other records?] to check what's been transiting the Suez Canal, no?
- bruno 3-26-2003 9:11 am
The agonist comment board has been trying to uncover such pictures - so far with no luck. I guess some things have to be secret.
- jim 3-26-2003 5:27 pm
Well someone's letting the world know every time B-52s take off from the UK, and you can see the Gulf of Aqaba from Eilat in Southern Israel. Anyone?
- bruno 3-26-2003 6:06 pm
Yeah, everybody knows when the B-52s take off, and therefore the Iraqis know when they will hit. Although not always where, I guess. Not sure this matters too much, as they don't have anything that can hit one. But it is very interesting to note the amount of information flying about. Certainly more than the U.S. would like. (Well, unless they are able to drop useful disinfo into the stream...)
Will this become more and more of a problem, in terms of the feasibility of conducting war? If there were millions of satellite video phones in Iraq would the U.S. really be able to invade? Without some sort of surprise in your troop movements I don't think you can take a heavily armed and defended urban center of 4 million like Baghdad. I think this is an interesting technological development. I want to write something a bit longer on this point. Someday....
In other news about the 4th ID, Debka (insert grain of salt) is reporting:
I completely agree with Bruno that supplying all those tanks is going to be very difficult (they get .5 miles to the gallon and thus need a constant stream of tankers coming from the rear to keep the front moving.) On the other hand, will it be so much harder than supplying them all the way from Kuwait? A supply line through the western desert at least doesn't pass through many big towns. And the U.S. needs to pull off some sort of surprise, so maybe this is "just so crazy it might work...." Or something.
- jim 3-26-2003 6:29 pm
Payment for access rights? Japan announced yesterday it will give Jordan 100 milliondollars in aid to support it in withstanding the consequences of the war led by the USA against Iraq. Worthy mentioning that the Japanese government voiced its support for the war against Iraq, but said it does not intend to finance the military campaign.
- mark 3-29-2003 1:12 pm