Following up on the Nexus One launch I posted about below let me say a few words about the smartphone space. I want to make this brief, so of course this will be too condensed (and probably overstated) to turn out to be accurate, but it's basically how I see things at this point.
There are only three camps in the race at this point: RIM's Blackberry, Apple's iPhone, and the various Android devices.
The Blackberry is all about business email (which is all about Microsoft Exchange support.) If your business runs on Exchange and uses Blackberry then you need a Blackberry - end of story. They have this niche locked down and will continue to do so. So they have something to generate profits, but I don't see them ever breaking out of this niche. And as Microsoft continues their very slow deterioration (and specifically, as Exchange and Office give way to online, cloud based, software from people like Google) RIM's market will slowly and continuously erode. They aren't going away soon, but they are the definite third wheel here and won't ever gain ground from where they stand today.
That leaves Apple vs. Android, or, really, Apple vs. Google. This doesn't have to be a battle to the death, as the space is giant. But it's a battle nonetheless. Google's CEO Eric Schmidt left Apple's board last year over conflict of interest as the two previous allies turned their guns more and more toward the other.
Very briefly, Google (with Android) is more open than Apple's iPhone ecosystem. But the iPhone - through the Apple run online App Store - is a much more developed, and much more tightly integrated market place for third party software (3 billion app downloads and counting.) The Android marketplace is far behind at this point. And really this is all that matters. Hardware has to be good, but tons of people can build good hardware. It's the software, and how it integrates with the hardware and with the marketplace for third party software, that matters. And here Androids openness works both for and against it.
There has been lots of third party software developer unease with Apple since they totally control who can sell and what they can sell. But my guess is that money talks, and as long as it's easy to develop, and the marketplace is giant with lots of profit opportunities, people will continue to develop and put up with Apple's occasional flights of whimsy in rejecting certain apps.
Android, by courting lots of different hardware makers, has a chance to grab marketshare rapidly (and in fact, with the Droid, they are doing so.) But at the same time, different manufacturers, combined with a completely open software stack, means that fragmentation is a danger. It might turn out something like the Windows software world where it becomes difficult to support all the variations of 'Android' devices out there. Apple looks to avoid this problem by keeping very tight control over the iPhone.
So can the Android marketplace catch up with the iPhone + App store? Of course it can, but it has a ways to go. To me it's really looking a lot like a replay of the PC world Microsoft vs. Apple story. Android is like Windows in that it's trying to be all things to all people and to let partnerships with other companies (Motorola, HTC, Verizon, etc...) flesh out the ecosystem. Apple, as they did on the desktop, wants to control every detail in order to flesh out their own very specific vision. Some people will really connect with this vision; others will not. But my guess is that it won't turn out as lopsided of a contest this time as it did on the desktop. Smartphones will do less than general purpose computers, but they will do what they do better, easier, and more intuitively. And that will be enough for most people. If Apple can execute (more on this later!) I think they can "win", and if not then Android will have no problem picking up the pieces.
For the rest of them: Palm tried valiantly with the Pre - which looks to be a very solid device - but it's too late and they are dead. Nokia has nothing right now, but does have several big projects in the works. I think it's too late for them as well, but they are an awfully big horse to bet against. And Microsoft just can't seem to compete at all in the smartphone space. I'd say they are already dead (although with some legacy numbers that don't look too bad at this point, but really will by the end of the year.)
The smartphone will be the main computer for most people over the next ten years, and your choices are going to be Apple, or some kind of Android device. The race is on. But there is still another twist to come.
great, i like the condenced version, thanks jim
AAPL $250 before 2011
Apple v. Microsoft for the personal computer market seems like a good analogy for the current mobile handset market.
I do think Android Marketplace will be big. Apple has a good head start, but it's very early. The deciding factor for many people won't be the OS or the marketplace, but the carrier network. Out here, lots of people hate AT&T's network. It's getting better, but not fast enough.
I haven't tried it, but the Moto Droid does support MS Outlook. I use a Moto Q9h (Windows Mobile) with MS Outlook. Blackberry is dead, IMHO. So I think it does narrow down to the iPhone v. Android.
One difference from the early days of personal computers is portability of data. Google, coincidentally, is a big proponent of that. But Apple, Adobe, and even Microsoft understand the market demand for this. That is a factor which can undercut the winner-take-almost-all dynamic that was present in PC v. Mac. I think there's room for more than one OS, as long as both provide the capabilities that people need, and provide enough portability of important data.
BTW, I have an iPod Touch and Verizon Moto Droid.
Oh, and Windows Mobile is dead too, IMHO. I'm not sure what happened, but if I had to guess ... they were arrogant about their early market position and just assumed they would win because they're awesome.
Thanks for the feedback.
AT&T's network is crap here too. Seriously bad in NYC (this didn't used to be the case.) So I agree this is big, but only for the moment. Network differences are decreasing, and chips with multiple radios are increasing, so over the next several years the iPhone will escape it's AT&T only stance. I think it will be this year, although until Verizon really transitions to LTE I think T-Mobile is probably the only immediate option.
Certainly there is plenty of room for more than one OS. And I think the Android marketplace will be very big. But my guess is that it will be a little too unregulated and wild west to go beyond what Apple is already doing today (games and applications and widgets.) Meanwhile I think Apple is building a complete 'for pay' layer to the internet which has a chance of being the de facto distribution layer for paid content (music, movies, but also things that have had trouble making money online up to this point: newspapers, magazines, books, etc...) Tightly controlling the whole distribution system (App Store - or Media Store - with frictionless one-click buying plus control over the device and the entire software stack) is what will give publishers and IP rights holders the confidence to sign on (plus Apple giving $.70 out of every $1.00 to the content producers - compared to almost the reverse split for something like Amazon Kindle.)
A tightly controlled "protocol stack" is certainly to the liking of the content folks. And Apple clearly has the lead on that.
I do have to comment on the "frictionless" aspect. Yes, frictionless when it's working. Completely opaque also applies, especially when it's not working. I tried to buy an app for my iPod touch while traveling. I got an "unknown error -- cancel, fail again?" sort of message from the iTunes/App Store. I had never used my Apple ID to buy anything at the iTunes store, only the regular Apple on-line store. Sorting this out with the iTouch alone would have been difficult or impossible. (IIRC, it shunted me off to the iTunes app whenever I tried to web browse to the iTunes store.) The "hide the (potential crucial) details" paradigm chaps my hide when there's no "show me the GDMF details" option.
My flight was delayed enough that I was able to get it all sorted out and play bridge during my flight.
FWIW, the app isn't available for android or windows mobile.
jim if my new job doesnt do micro exchange which phone should linda and i get??:>)
Will the android get an awesome app like this? Because I really really need it. ...for stuff, you know.
Nice app LM. Might want to check out this RC helicopter related link.
Love it!
Mostly because I am 8 years old and I just set up my new 30", 2560 x 1600 computer monitor and played it full screen.
I am not going to get any work done today.
|
There are only three camps in the race at this point: RIM's Blackberry, Apple's iPhone, and the various Android devices.
The Blackberry is all about business email (which is all about Microsoft Exchange support.) If your business runs on Exchange and uses Blackberry then you need a Blackberry - end of story. They have this niche locked down and will continue to do so. So they have something to generate profits, but I don't see them ever breaking out of this niche. And as Microsoft continues their very slow deterioration (and specifically, as Exchange and Office give way to online, cloud based, software from people like Google) RIM's market will slowly and continuously erode. They aren't going away soon, but they are the definite third wheel here and won't ever gain ground from where they stand today.
That leaves Apple vs. Android, or, really, Apple vs. Google. This doesn't have to be a battle to the death, as the space is giant. But it's a battle nonetheless. Google's CEO Eric Schmidt left Apple's board last year over conflict of interest as the two previous allies turned their guns more and more toward the other.
Very briefly, Google (with Android) is more open than Apple's iPhone ecosystem. But the iPhone - through the Apple run online App Store - is a much more developed, and much more tightly integrated market place for third party software (3 billion app downloads and counting.) The Android marketplace is far behind at this point. And really this is all that matters. Hardware has to be good, but tons of people can build good hardware. It's the software, and how it integrates with the hardware and with the marketplace for third party software, that matters. And here Androids openness works both for and against it.
There has been lots of third party software developer unease with Apple since they totally control who can sell and what they can sell. But my guess is that money talks, and as long as it's easy to develop, and the marketplace is giant with lots of profit opportunities, people will continue to develop and put up with Apple's occasional flights of whimsy in rejecting certain apps.
Android, by courting lots of different hardware makers, has a chance to grab marketshare rapidly (and in fact, with the Droid, they are doing so.) But at the same time, different manufacturers, combined with a completely open software stack, means that fragmentation is a danger. It might turn out something like the Windows software world where it becomes difficult to support all the variations of 'Android' devices out there. Apple looks to avoid this problem by keeping very tight control over the iPhone.
So can the Android marketplace catch up with the iPhone + App store? Of course it can, but it has a ways to go. To me it's really looking a lot like a replay of the PC world Microsoft vs. Apple story. Android is like Windows in that it's trying to be all things to all people and to let partnerships with other companies (Motorola, HTC, Verizon, etc...) flesh out the ecosystem. Apple, as they did on the desktop, wants to control every detail in order to flesh out their own very specific vision. Some people will really connect with this vision; others will not. But my guess is that it won't turn out as lopsided of a contest this time as it did on the desktop. Smartphones will do less than general purpose computers, but they will do what they do better, easier, and more intuitively. And that will be enough for most people. If Apple can execute (more on this later!) I think they can "win", and if not then Android will have no problem picking up the pieces.
For the rest of them: Palm tried valiantly with the Pre - which looks to be a very solid device - but it's too late and they are dead. Nokia has nothing right now, but does have several big projects in the works. I think it's too late for them as well, but they are an awfully big horse to bet against. And Microsoft just can't seem to compete at all in the smartphone space. I'd say they are already dead (although with some legacy numbers that don't look too bad at this point, but really will by the end of the year.)
The smartphone will be the main computer for most people over the next ten years, and your choices are going to be Apple, or some kind of Android device. The race is on. But there is still another twist to come.
- jim 1-05-2010 7:25 pm
great, i like the condenced version, thanks jim
- Skinny 1-05-2010 9:13 pm
AAPL $250 before 2011
- Skinny 1-05-2010 9:14 pm
Apple v. Microsoft for the personal computer market seems like a good analogy for the current mobile handset market.
I do think Android Marketplace will be big. Apple has a good head start, but it's very early. The deciding factor for many people won't be the OS or the marketplace, but the carrier network. Out here, lots of people hate AT&T's network. It's getting better, but not fast enough.
I haven't tried it, but the Moto Droid does support MS Outlook. I use a Moto Q9h (Windows Mobile) with MS Outlook. Blackberry is dead, IMHO. So I think it does narrow down to the iPhone v. Android.
One difference from the early days of personal computers is portability of data. Google, coincidentally, is a big proponent of that. But Apple, Adobe, and even Microsoft understand the market demand for this. That is a factor which can undercut the winner-take-almost-all dynamic that was present in PC v. Mac. I think there's room for more than one OS, as long as both provide the capabilities that people need, and provide enough portability of important data.
BTW, I have an iPod Touch and Verizon Moto Droid.
- mark 1-05-2010 10:16 pm
Oh, and Windows Mobile is dead too, IMHO. I'm not sure what happened, but if I had to guess ... they were arrogant about their early market position and just assumed they would win because they're awesome.
- mark 1-05-2010 10:19 pm
Thanks for the feedback.
AT&T's network is crap here too. Seriously bad in NYC (this didn't used to be the case.) So I agree this is big, but only for the moment. Network differences are decreasing, and chips with multiple radios are increasing, so over the next several years the iPhone will escape it's AT&T only stance. I think it will be this year, although until Verizon really transitions to LTE I think T-Mobile is probably the only immediate option.
Certainly there is plenty of room for more than one OS. And I think the Android marketplace will be very big. But my guess is that it will be a little too unregulated and wild west to go beyond what Apple is already doing today (games and applications and widgets.) Meanwhile I think Apple is building a complete 'for pay' layer to the internet which has a chance of being the de facto distribution layer for paid content (music, movies, but also things that have had trouble making money online up to this point: newspapers, magazines, books, etc...) Tightly controlling the whole distribution system (App Store - or Media Store - with frictionless one-click buying plus control over the device and the entire software stack) is what will give publishers and IP rights holders the confidence to sign on (plus Apple giving $.70 out of every $1.00 to the content producers - compared to almost the reverse split for something like Amazon Kindle.)
- jim 1-05-2010 10:52 pm
A tightly controlled "protocol stack" is certainly to the liking of the content folks. And Apple clearly has the lead on that.
I do have to comment on the "frictionless" aspect. Yes, frictionless when it's working. Completely opaque also applies, especially when it's not working. I tried to buy an app for my iPod touch while traveling. I got an "unknown error -- cancel, fail again?" sort of message from the iTunes/App Store. I had never used my Apple ID to buy anything at the iTunes store, only the regular Apple on-line store. Sorting this out with the iTouch alone would have been difficult or impossible. (IIRC, it shunted me off to the iTunes app whenever I tried to web browse to the iTunes store.) The "hide the (potential crucial) details" paradigm chaps my hide when there's no "show me the GDMF details" option.
My flight was delayed enough that I was able to get it all sorted out and play bridge during my flight. FWIW, the app isn't available for android or windows mobile.
- mark 1-06-2010 12:51 am
jim if my new job doesnt do micro exchange which phone should linda and i get??:>)
- Skinny 1-06-2010 2:12 pm
Will the android get an awesome app like this? Because I really really need it. ...for stuff, you know.
- L.M. 1-06-2010 6:44 pm
Nice app LM. Might want to check out this RC helicopter related link.
- jim 1-06-2010 6:55 pm
Love it! Mostly because I am 8 years old and I just set up my new 30", 2560 x 1600 computer monitor and played it full screen. I am not going to get any work done today.
- L.M. 1-06-2010 7:10 pm