Slashdot had this great link to a Christian Science Monitor article speculating that today (October 31) will be the last day with no human in space. The 7:53 GMT lift off of the Soyuz rocket carrying 2 cosmonauts and 1 astronaut to the International Space Station is planned to be the beginning of humankinds continual habitation of space."I'd say there's a decent chance that Oct. 30 may be the last
day we don't have humans in space," says John Curry, the
station's flight director at NASA's Johnson Space Center in
Houston." Maybe this is a little overblown, sure, but it's fun to think about. Space colonization seems realistic to me, but of course we don't have too much experience yet, so it's probably too early to tell. My favorite argument against humans ever colonizing space is based on an idea called the "Copernican principle" (I can't remember who argued this, I'll try to find out.) It seems like bull at first, but if you really think about it there is some sense to it: There is very little chance that your particluar point of view is very special, and therefore it would be highly unlikely that you would be living in a time during the span of the human species that is in any way special. Yet if we do go on to colonize space and spread throughout the galaxy then it would be true that right now we are living at the very start of this incredible celestial journey. Your short life span would just happen to fall exactly at the birth of humans as a spacefaring civilivationl. But as we assumed to start, this sort of special perspective is highly unlikely, and therefore it follows that humans won't colonize space and live far far into the future. If we were going to colonize space, it would be overwhelmingly more likely that you woulld have been born in the vast chunk of time that makes up the middle 90% of spacefaring humankinds existence, in other words, you would have been born somewhere during the fantastically long ride we would have to go through to get anywhere in space. But since you (and me) were born right here on the home planet, it's highly likely that we are falling somewhere in the middle of our life span as a species, and therefore won't live that much longer than we have already been around, or again, in other words, not long enough to spread out through the galaxy.
Well, I said it sounded like bull. But the guy I'm paraphrasing argued this as a statistical argument. If you see the math, it's a little more convincing (deceiving?) Anyway, I don't buy it because I like being a bit more of an optimist. Perhaps this date actually will become significant in the far future as the day we first left home.
You can find out more about the ISS here. And here's the slashdot thread.
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Well, I said it sounded like bull. But the guy I'm paraphrasing argued this as a statistical argument. If you see the math, it's a little more convincing (deceiving?) Anyway, I don't buy it because I like being a bit more of an optimist. Perhaps this date actually will become significant in the far future as the day we first left home.
You can find out more about the ISS here. And here's the slashdot thread.
- jim 10-31-2000 8:22 pm