War (of Words) with Syria
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Tuesday, May 06, 2003
[An analysis of Powell's interaction with Syria.]
Powell and Syria
Beirut Calling -- May 5
A spot analysis of Colin Powell's visit to Syria and Lebanon seems in order. Officially, Powell came with a list of items for the Syrians that included putting an end to their support for Palestinian groups the Bush administration considers terrorist organizations, ending Hezbollah attacks against Israel in the disputed Shebaa Farms area of southern Lebanon, giving up members of the former Iraqi regime, and ending the development of weapons of mass destruction. Powell went further, saying the Syrians would be judged on their actions, not words. That was the official line.
Unofficially, things were different. Powell came to Syria to essentially tell Bashar Assad, "Look, I'm the best you have now. Scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. Otherwise, those cranks at the Pentagon will have a shot at you." What did Powell mean by having his back scratched? I suspect some relatively cosmetic action on the Palestinian groups that might include closing their Damascus offices, but not expelling their leaders. On Hizbullah, it might mean ensuring the party will cease its attacks against Israel, or make them rare indeed, while also beefing up Lebanese army troops in the border area.
[Weekly middle east press review in Slate. Includes coverage of Powell's trip to Syria.]
Powell Play
Slate -- May 5
By Michael Young
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell kicked off a new phase in post-Iraq-war Middle East diplomacy Saturday when he traveled to Syria and Lebanon to issue a warning and some embedded reassurances. Lebanon's left-wing Al-Safir headlined with the gist of what Powell told the Syrians: "We Want Action, Not Words, and We'll Be Watching Syria."
[Transcript of Powell's press briefing on Saturday morning, prior to his meetings with Assad and Shara.
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, and a little bit of Palestine are included on this US-Syria page. It's nice to see official confirmation that these problems are intertwined. But according to Powell, Bush has a vision for how to untie this Gordian knot.]
Briefing by Powell in Damascus
Arabic News -- May 3
SECRETARY POWELL: Well, good morning everyone, I am very pleased to be back in Damascus and I am looking forward to my conversations this morning with the President of Syria, President Bashar Assad, and with the Foreign Minister, my colleague Foreign Minister Shara. Much has changed since my last visit to Syria. We have entirely a new situation in Iraq, and I think another element that is significant is the appointment of Mr. Abu Mazen as Prime Minister to the Palestinian authority and the presentation of the road map to both parties and to all other interested nations. So we have two dynamics at work: changed strategic situation in Iraq with the elimination of a dictatorial regime and a new opportunity for the people of Iraq to build a country and a government that rests on democratic foundations and the opportunity to move forward with a peace process between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
I will mention to the President in no uncertain terms that even though the Roadmap relates principally to the Palestinians and the Israelis, the United States sees this as part of a comprehensive settlement that must be achieved that would include the interests of Syria and Lebanon, as well. That is part of the President's vision.
[An interview with Moshe Ya'alon, the chief of staff of the IDF, includes some comments on US-Syrian-Israeli relations.]
Ya'alon: Main threat to Abu Mazen from Arafat, not Hamas
Ha'aretz -- May 6
By Amos Harel
Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon, the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, sees the recent developments in the Palestinian Authority as "an authentic internal development, and the battle has not yet been decided." Ya'alon points to PA Chairman Yasser Arafat, and not the Islamist extremists, as the greatest threat to the new government of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who was appointed last month as the PA's first prime minister.
[snip]
"The Syrians meet all the American criteria for membership in the axis of evil," he said. "This is an irresponsible regime that has chemical weapons and employs terrorism. There is no doubt that the Syrians are under pressure as a result of the situation they found themselves in after the American attack on Iraq, as well as their behavior during the attack: They allowed terrorists to enter Iraq from their territory and transferred antitank missiles and night vision equipment to Iraq. There are also serious suspicions that Syria helped Iraq to hide some of its forbidden capabilities. Syria is currently directly in America's sights because of its behavior."
Military Intelligence depicts Syria as a balloon that is rapidly losing air and sinking. To regain altitude, the leadership must jettison all unnecessary baggage. This means handing over all escaped Iraqi officials in its terrority - and later, a series of steps that greatly interest Israel: allowing the Lebanese Army to deploy in the south of the country, dismantling Hezbollah's rocket batteries in south Lebanon and expelling the headquarters of various terrorist organizations from Damascus.
"These headquarters are not public relations offices, as the Syrians claim," said Ya'alon. "This is a ridiculous denial, like their denial of the chemical weapons in their possession. These are command posts that direct terror operations from Lebanon and in the Palestinian theater, finance, push, encourage and set policy.
"The Syrians understand that they are now being asked to pay, but so far we are only hearing words. They announced that the offices were closed? So they announced it. I haven't yet noticed [the organizations] ceasing to function - not Hamas, not Islamic Jihad and not the Popular Front [for the Liberation of Palestine]. I also haven't yet seen them disarming Hezbollah."
Ya'alon views the American victory in Iraq as an opportunity for reducing the influence and freedom of action of extremist groups and terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East. Will Syrian President Bashar Assad bow to American pressure? "The determining factor will be the amount of diplomatic and economic pressure. One cannot speak of Assad's decisions as irrational, but there are concerns about his maturity and responsibility. Anyone who, during the second week of the Iraqi war, decides to send a convoy of arms to Iraq raises questions about his abilities.
"What is worrying is that Assad makes decisions on the basis of Al Jazeera [the Arab satellite television station] - and that is likely to be a basis for erroneous decisions. We have been in this situation before [with Assad's father], in the tension between Israel and Syria in the summer of 1996."
Hezbollah fire on Israeli warplanes over south Lebanon
AFP via Space Daily -- May 5
RACHAYA, Lebanon -
Lebanon's Shiite fundamentalist group Hezbollah said its militia fired Monday on Israeli warplanes violating Lebanese airspace over the south of the country, police and Hezbollah sources said.
[An analysis of the neocon influence on US policy towards Syria and Iran.]
The Two-Line Struggle at the Top
Phase Two: Syria and Iran
CounterPunch -- May 5
by GARY LEUPP
For some time now, here in the USA, it's been apparent that there's a power struggle, perhaps what you can call a "two-line struggle" between Colin Powell's State Department and Donald Rumsfeld's Defense Department. (Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has referred to this as the "split personality" of the Bush Administration.) The former seems dominated by professional diplomats who find it in U.S. interest to maintain friendly ties with the world in general. The latter is dominated by the neocons, whose project for a New American Century includes (among other ambitious goals) plans for regime change in Iraq, Syria and Iran, change plans that the world tends to oppose and fear since they mean U.S. hegemony throughout Southwest Asia.
[Analysis of potential Syrian responses to Powell's "suggestions".]
Syria waffles on militant groups despite US pressure
Christian Science Monitor -- May 6
The US demanded this weekend that Syria shut down militant offices.
By Nicholas Blanford
BEIRUT, LEBANON – Syria is pondering its next moves after being told by the United States that it must adapt to the new realities in the Middle East following the Iraq war or face "consequences."
Analysts expect the Syrian regime to agree to some US demands - such as closing the offices of radical Palestinian groups in Damascus, and not interfering in Iraq. But with nothing concrete being offered in return, other demands will be difficult for Damascus to fulfill, such as dismantling Lebanon's Hizbullah organization.
[Talk about talks, triggered by Lantos (D-CA) visit to Syria and Israel. Background on rebuffed attempt to resume talks prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom. Comments from dovish and hawkish politicians in Israel.]
Israel for unconditional talks with Syria
UPI -- May 5
By Joshua Brilliant
TEL AVIV, Israel -- Israeli Minister Without Portfolio Meir Sheetrit Monday told parliament his country was ready for unconditional talks with Syria, faced with reports of the Arab country's readiness to resume peace talks with Israel.
Israel is ready for "bona fide negotiations, without prior conditions," he said.
Sheetrit addressed the issue exactly a week after U.S. Rep. Tom Lantos, D-Calif., told Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that Syrian President Bashar Assad wanted to resume talks.
Monday the Israeli Maariv newspaper reported that Sharon had rejected an earlier Syrian attempt, made before the war in Iraq, to resume negotiations. An Israeli diplomatic source said the government considered that initiative to be "not serious."
Sheetrit told the legislators that Sharon was ready for negotiations "any place, any time, without prior conditions."
Is Bush a Neoconservative?
The American Conservative -- May 5
by Pat Buchanan
Is George W. Bush a neoconservative? Has he, too, decided that we must, after taking down Saddam, destroy six or seven more Arab and Islamic regimes, “democratize” the Mideast, and impose a Pax Americana from Tripoli to Tora Bora?
Is Syria next on the U.S. “hit list” for “regime change”?
My sense: George W. is more his father’s son than a neocon. But we are going to find out soon. For not only have Richard Perle and ex-CIA-Director James Woolsey begun to breathe fire at Syria, so, too, have Secretary Rumsfeld and President Bush himself.
via tom moody
Syria to U.S.: 'Press Israel to give up all 1967 war gains'
Reuters via Ha'aretz -- May 5
Syria on Sunday, responding to a call by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to cooperate, said Arabs had given their all for peace and Washington must now push Israel to give up the land it seized in a 1967 Middle East war.
"Peace...as Mr. Powell knows, cannot be achieved without obliging Israel to fulfil international resolutions" and to withdraw to frontiers before the Middle East war in June 1967, the state-run radio, a government mouthpiece, said Sunday.