War (of Words) with Syria
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Saturday, Apr 19, 2003
Summary and Conjecture: The question has been posed to Assad
This past weekend the anti-Syria rhetoric from the Bush administration reached its high water mark. Since the appearance on Tuesday of the Guardian article asserting that Bush vetoed the invasion of Syria, the rhetoric has been settling down. Voices from the DoD and White House are muted or silent. Powell is the primary administration voice on Syria at this point. And Powell is mixing tough talk with conciliatory talk.
The US and Israel continue to back Abu Mazen as the new voice of Palestine, and must deliver some form of progress to the Palestinians to maintain Mazen's credibility. Significant progress won't come without security gains on the Israeli-Lebanese border, or Sharon will lose credibility with his own power base. Israel has signalled to the US with public comments that dismantling the organizations which threaten Israel from Lebanon would be enough to satisfy their concerns about a northern front.
Various voices in the US government and in the conservative media have suggested a Lebanon or Bekaa gambit instead of an full-scale invasion of Syria. A few days ago, I suggested that Bashar al-Assad might pull a Musharraf -- that faced with threats and incentives he would sell out his radical Hezbollah friends.
I believe that the question is still before Assad: sell out Hezbollah and be rehabilitated in the eyes of America, or stand by Hezbollah and suffer the political and economic wrath of the US.
I don't know enough about Lebanese politics to get a reading on the recent reshuffle of the cabinet. But stacking the cabinet with loyalists better prepares Assad to keep a grip on Lebanon whether he takes a confrontational or conciliatory stance towards the US.
[This commentary proposes using political means to take down the regimes in Iran and Syria. The Lebanese gambit is proposed as a method to weaken Assad.]
The end of the beginning
The Spectator -- April 12
Michael Ledeen
We should unleash the full panoply of political weapons on behalf of Lebanese freedom: a vigorous human-rights campaign, attention to the many stories of brutality and abuse coming from the lively Lebanese diaspora, political observers at every Lebanese election, demands for shutting down the infamous terrorist-training camps in the Bekaa Valley (where every terror group worthy of note has extensive facilities), investigations into the state of religious freedom, and so forth. Lebanese exiles should get special status, pending the liberation of their country.
via Salon via Tom Tomorrow
[Analysis of recent signals in Iranian-American relations and Syrian-American relations.]
Syria, Iran: has the US reshuffled priorities?
Al Jazeera -- April 19
Cilina Nasser
Iranian President Mohammad Khatami refrained from criticizing the US on Friday in a speech addressed to thousands of the Iranian armed forces, focusing on the brutality of the toppled Iraqi government.
[Statements of confidence from Hezbollah. Following the section quoted below, the article cites Arab analysts speaking on the Syrian/Lebanese/Israeli/American situation.]
Syria Won’t Fail Anti-Israel Resistance: Hizbullah
IslamOnline -- April 19
By Hani Mohammed
CAIRO - Syria will not bargain with the United States over Hizbollah in view of the latest bellicose threats against Syria after Saddam Hussein’s regime had passed into history, Hizbullah’s Spokesman Hassan Ezzudin told IslamOnline.net late Friday, April 18.
“Anti-U.S. occupation powers are, in fact, rallying behind Syria and in harmony with its stances and Syria will never fail such powers,” Ezzudin said.
That is why “Hizbullah has no worries that Syria might be armtwisted by the US pressures and fail anti-Israeli resistance movement like Hizbollah,” he said, noting that such movements were serving as the stronghold against occupation.
The Hizbullah media official, meanwhile, ruled out that some countries, which forged strategic and diplomatic relations with Hizbullah such as Iran and some Arab countries, would pressure Syria into toeing the American line.
Ezzudin said Israel may be behind the latest string of U.S. threats against Syria, pointing out that Israel was fishing in troubled waters to provoke the U.S. into taking military action against Syria or Lebanon.
[A story from last month, but it gives some background on the Hezbollah-Israel conflict.]
On 2nd Anniversary of Israeli Withdrawal, Lebanese Protest Israeli Continued Occupation
IslamOnline -- May 26
ABBASSIYEH (IslamOnline & News Agencies) – On the second anniversary of Israel's May 24, 2000, troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon, more than 200 villagers of Abbassiyeh, destroyed by Israel in 1967 and now under reconstruction, protested Sunday, May 26, for an end to Israel's continued occupation of two-thirds of their border village.
Men, women and children flocked in from other regions in Lebanon and neighboring Syria, to where many Abbassiyeh families fled after the invasion and destruction of the village in 1967, Agence France-Presse (AFP) said.
The families marched to the Indian post of the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, UNIFIL, carrying Lebanese flags and those of the Islamic resistance movement, Hizbullah.
"Abbassiyeh and the Shebaa Farms will only return to the homeland through resistance," said banners carried by the protestors who were marking the second anniversary of Israel's troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon after 22 years of occupation.
The protest march was organized by Hizbullah whose resistance forces were instrumental in leading to the 2000 Israeli withdrawal, AFP reported.
[More on the Lebanese cabinet shake up. Is Assad strengthening his hand in Lebanon in preparation for standing tough, or in preparation for selling out Hizbullah?]
Lebanon's New Cabinet Will Foster Close Syria Ties
Reuters -- April 19
BEIRUT - Lebanon's new cabinet said on Saturday it would foster close ties with its political master Syria, which has been accused by the U.S. of harboring Iraqi officials after the fall of Saddam Hussein's government.
Speaking after the cabinet's first meeting, Lebanese Information Minister Michel Samaha said both President Emile Lahoud and Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri had urged close links with Syria, which keeps some 15,000 troops in Lebanon.
[Surprised?]
Pentagon Expects Long-Term Access to Four Key Bases in Iraq
New York Times -- April 19
By THOM SHANKER and ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON — The United States is planning a long-term military relationship with the emerging government of Iraq, one that would grant the Pentagon access to military bases and project American influence into the heart of the unsettled region, senior Bush administration officials say.
Although the new bases in Iraq are primarily for mounting comprehensive postwar security operations, senior administration officials make no secret that the American presence at those bases near Syria and Iran and long-term access to them "will make them nervous."
Or as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell put it on Thursday: "We have been successful in Iraq. There is a new dynamic in that part of the world."
Even so, administration officials are quick to echo Mr. Powell's assertions that Washington has "no war plan right now" for Syria and Iran.
"So don't ask if our tanks are going to move right or left out of Iraq," said one senior administration official. "There are a lot of political weapons that can be unleashed to achieve our goals."
Among the pressures to be exerted against Syria will be a campaign to focus the world's attention on a new administration message. "Syria occupies Lebanon," one senior administration official said. "This is the repression of one Arab state by another. Plus there are terror training camps in the Bekaa Valley."
In addition to tamping down public anxiety over possible military action against Syria, or even Iran, officials are quick to argue that these two nations have the most significant vote as to whether the United States will ever apply the template of "regime change" in Iraq to them.
"This does not mean, necessarily, that other governments have to fall," one senior administration official said. "They can moderate their behavior."
UPI via Washington Times -- April 19
Analysis: On the road to Damascus
By Claude Salhani
DAMASCUS -- Accusations by several Bush administration officials that Syria possesses chemical weapons and may be harboring some of Iraq's leading Baathists -- now on the run -- have been received in Damascus with concern and trepidation.
The concern stems from what the United States might do next as it consolidates its position in Iraq and pursues its vision of the Middle East road map. Many officials here in Damascus fear this map is set on a course that could lead to disaster for them, as well as for the United States.
"We are afraid," admitted a senior government official to United Press International. "These are the same warnings the Americans made to Iraq six months ago. It started out with small accusations and ended up with an invasion of the country."
At the same time the Syrian official warned the Americans that they, too, should be worried. "They are awakening religious consciousness in the Arab world that is very dangerous and that will come back to haunt them."
The official, who asked not to be named, explained America's invasion of Iraq could unleash Islamic forces that could turn Iraq into an Islamic country. "This is not something America wants and not something Syria wants either," he added.
AP via Salon.com -- April 18
Syria divides Democratic candidates
Nedra Pickler
WASHINGTON -- Now that Saddam Hussein has been removed from power in Iraq, a new military issue is dividing Democrats running for president, how to deal with Syria.
Presidential candidate Bob Graham, a Florida senator who voted against the resolution authorizing force against Iraq, suggested military action against Syria might be necessary.
"We threw a few cruise missiles into the terrorist training camps in Afghanistan ... that's what we may have to do in Syria," he told the Orlando Sentinel after an appearance during the weekend in his home state.
[An overview of recent moves to ease tensions: visa restrictions, US congressional delegation, softer tone in Syrian government press.]
Ha'aretz -- April 19
Syria tightens visa restrictions on Iraqis
DAMASCUS - In an apparent effort to counter U.S. charges that it is giving safe haven to former members of Saddam Hussein's regime, Syria has banned any Iraqi not already holding a visa from entering the country, airline sources confirmed Saturday.
The conciliatory gesture was another sign that Syria is seeking to ease tensions with Washington over Iraq ahead of an expected visit soon by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.
Meanwhile, a delegation from the United States Congress arrived Saturday in Damascus to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad to discuss the U.S.-backed road map for Middle East peace and U.S. accusations against Syria.