Argo aims guns at more than iPod
I think this is very bad news for Apple. As technology develops, there's a certain gravity towards "integration points". The "office suite" absorbs word processing, spreadsheets, etc., etc. The DSL settop becomes a network gateway. The cell phone subsumes the PDA, a camera, an MP3 player, etc. The portable media/game player seems like another integration point. The iPod is pretty cool, but will this MP3 player niche remain a stand-alone product? Only as a commodity would be my bet.
Apple fanboi counter argument: everyone already has an iPod, so everyone has already committed their music collection to iTunes and therefore will have to keep buying iPods.
Rumor has it Microsoft is going to read your iTunes collection, and replace all the legitimately purchased through the iTunes Music Store tracks with legitimate Microsoft tracks (at no cost to the user.) But then what about all the illegal stuff everyone has?
Given the iPods fairly reasonable price points (compared to the industry as a whole) I can't see it being worth the trouble for people to switch.
But maybe super cellphones will replace all stand alone players (and point and shoot cameras)? I used to think this would for sure happen. But the US cellphone network operators seem like the number 1 most clueless people in the world, so I doubt they can do it. Sony / Ericcsson and Samsung and Nokia can make nice handsets, but they never come out in this country! It's amazing.
I think the iPod (and Apple) has several more years of dominance. Maybe even something like 5 more years. But yeah, not much argument that it will eventually become a commodity and usually that spells the end for Apple. (Except, for once, Apple is the juggernaut in terms of flash memory buying power - so this might actually work in their favor this time.)
I don't think its overnight doom for iPod. I think it has a number of years left. I'd go with <5 unless it subsumes other functions. Perhaps a really good portable media player would be enough. But I think high-end portables battle may shift to PSP vs. XPod.
Tracking Microsoft's portable media device
How the "Microsoft iPod" Might Succeed
|
I think this is very bad news for Apple. As technology develops, there's a certain gravity towards "integration points". The "office suite" absorbs word processing, spreadsheets, etc., etc. The DSL settop becomes a network gateway. The cell phone subsumes the PDA, a camera, an MP3 player, etc. The portable media/game player seems like another integration point. The iPod is pretty cool, but will this MP3 player niche remain a stand-alone product? Only as a commodity would be my bet.
- mark 7-11-2006 9:15 pm
Apple fanboi counter argument: everyone already has an iPod, so everyone has already committed their music collection to iTunes and therefore will have to keep buying iPods.
Rumor has it Microsoft is going to read your iTunes collection, and replace all the legitimately purchased through the iTunes Music Store tracks with legitimate Microsoft tracks (at no cost to the user.) But then what about all the illegal stuff everyone has?
Given the iPods fairly reasonable price points (compared to the industry as a whole) I can't see it being worth the trouble for people to switch.
But maybe super cellphones will replace all stand alone players (and point and shoot cameras)? I used to think this would for sure happen. But the US cellphone network operators seem like the number 1 most clueless people in the world, so I doubt they can do it. Sony / Ericcsson and Samsung and Nokia can make nice handsets, but they never come out in this country! It's amazing.
I think the iPod (and Apple) has several more years of dominance. Maybe even something like 5 more years. But yeah, not much argument that it will eventually become a commodity and usually that spells the end for Apple. (Except, for once, Apple is the juggernaut in terms of flash memory buying power - so this might actually work in their favor this time.)
- jim 7-11-2006 10:06 pm
I don't think its overnight doom for iPod. I think it has a number of years left. I'd go with <5 unless it subsumes other functions. Perhaps a really good portable media player would be enough. But I think high-end portables battle may shift to PSP vs. XPod.
- mark 7-11-2006 11:57 pm
Tracking Microsoft's portable media device
How the "Microsoft iPod" Might Succeed
- mark 7-12-2006 2:10 am