Shit. Here we go again. Fingers crossed.Time to leave New Orleans
I've been criticized by some for recommending people evacuate New Orleans, since that's not my job, and for saying "it's not natural" to live in a city that lies partially below sea level. I apologize for my remarks, they could have been phrased better. We had to build New Orleans where it is, and it is a great city that needs to be protected. The fact remains that New Orleans is highly vulnerable to storms like Gustav. Gustav is capable of bringing a storm surge to the city that will overwhelm the levees. Pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means it's time to leave. I'm not an emergency manager, but I am a hurricane scientist. I understand the danger this storm poses better than most. The risk of staying in New Orleans is unacceptable. This is a huge and dangerous storm that has already killed a lot of people. The projected track and strength of Gustav is very close to that of Hurricane Betsy of 1965, the Category 3 hurricane that overwhelmed New Orleans' levees, and killed 76 people. It's time to get out of New Orleans.
14 hours or so and counting. I'm choosing the it's not going to happen and no one's going to be hurt school of thinking, until that is no longer possible. It's totally counter-productive to mental health to be expecting the worst.
Yeah, seems like Cuba knocked the wind out of it (so to speak.) Seems less dangerous now than it did 24 hours ago. I think you'll be right.
optimism and denial have work nicely for so long with hurricanes. andrew was a major wake up call for southern floridans. we all have good reason to take these storms seriously now a days. but it will still take optimism and denial to get through these things on a regular basis.
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- jim 8-30-2008 5:55 pm
14 hours or so and counting. I'm choosing the it's not going to happen and no one's going to be hurt school of thinking, until that is no longer possible. It's totally counter-productive to mental health to be expecting the worst.
- jimlouis 9-01-2008 3:02 am [add a comment]
Yeah, seems like Cuba knocked the wind out of it (so to speak.) Seems less dangerous now than it did 24 hours ago. I think you'll be right.
- jim 9-01-2008 3:19 am [add a comment]
optimism and denial have work nicely for so long with hurricanes. andrew was a major wake up call for southern floridans. we all have good reason to take these storms seriously now a days. but it will still take optimism and denial to get through these things on a regular basis.
- bill 9-01-2008 4:51 am [add a comment]