Monday morning quarterbacking: Should the Giants have stopped on the 1 yard line and run the clock down rather than score the final TD at the end of the game? Personally I would have been scared to do it (turn over; missed field goal; etc...) but I can see it might have been the theoretically better option. What say you?
i would have tried to run out the clock though i can imagine that football players might prefer to lose by failing to stop brady than to miss a field goal. Win Probability charts aren't perfect because they don't adjust for the teams involved, but they're the best tool for answering a question like this. Here, the Giants-Patriots WP chart on advancednflstats.com notes that the Giants had an 89 percent chance of winning the game when Hakeem Nicks picked up a first down on the New England 7-yard line with 1:09 left. From there, the Giants could have chosen to kneel three times, force the Patriots to use their final timeout, and then attempt a game-winning field goal with seconds on the clock without ever giving the ball back to the Patriots. The model might even be underestimating their chances; history suggests that an average field goal kicker will convert a 24-yard field goal about 96 percent of the time, and the Giants were playing on turf with the options to both move the ball onto Lawrence Tynes' desired hash mark while falling on the ball and trying again in the case of a bad snap. And if you think Tynes is a terrible kicker, note that he's 56-of-57 on kicks from 20 to 29 yards during his career.
Instead, when Bradshaw scored the most mournful game-winning Super Bowl touchdown in history, the Win Probability analysis suggests that the Giants' odds of winning decreased to 85 percent. That's right: Bill Belichick was likely correct to allow the Giants to score, and the Giants should have taken a knee and decided to kick the chip shot field goal instead.3 If you use the 96 percent win expectancy that we're suggesting instead of the model's 89 percent, it's patently obvious that the Giants should have kneeled and kicked.
come on guys, ease up, giselle's having a hard time with this.
i think the giants won so the touchdown was the way to go
Much more fun the way they did it
Not scoring as much as you can when you can is a sin of the same degree as contraception.
official department of dogma
definitely take the points when you can.
If he stopped the Pats call time out anyway, making it third down. Then what? run one more play to waste 30+ seconds, have to then either rush your field goal unit on or call a timeout yourself. Then you need to MAKE the field goal. eh hem, can anyone say Scot Norwood or the more recent Billy Cundiff(which was only a 32 yarder) or remember the Giants themselves blocked a Dallas fiield goal which would have ended the Giants season!
Take the points and make the Pats have to get in the endzone and not win it with a fieldgoal of their own.
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- jim 2-06-2012 8:40 pm
i would have tried to run out the clock though i can imagine that football players might prefer to lose by failing to stop brady than to miss a field goal.
- dave 2-06-2012 9:09 pm [add a comment]
come on guys, ease up, giselle's having a hard time with this.
- jimlouis 2-06-2012 9:46 pm [add a comment]
she'll survive.
- dave 2-06-2012 10:31 pm [add a comment]
Giselle is to blame
- ken 2-07-2012 3:13 am [add a comment]
i think the giants won so the touchdown was the way to go
- Skinny 2-06-2012 10:02 pm [add a comment]
Much more fun the way they did it
- mb 2-06-2012 10:15 pm [add a comment]
Not scoring as much as you can when you can is a sin of the same degree as contraception.
official department of dogma
- alex 2-07-2012 1:27 am [add a comment]
definitely take the points when you can.
If he stopped the Pats call time out anyway, making it third down. Then what? run one more play to waste 30+ seconds, have to then either rush your field goal unit on or call a timeout yourself. Then you need to MAKE the field goal. eh hem, can anyone say Scot Norwood or the more recent Billy Cundiff(which was only a 32 yarder) or remember the Giants themselves blocked a Dallas fiield goal which would have ended the Giants season!
Take the points and make the Pats have to get in the endzone and not win it with a fieldgoal of their own.
- ken 2-07-2012 2:52 am [add a comment]