It always was, I guess, but it's really gone beyond my ability to understand at this point. Goldman and Morgan Stanley becoming commercial banks really made it clear I have no idea what is going on. What does that mean? They get easier access to money from the Fed (and from deposits) in exchange for a bit more regulation and reducing their leverage. Still, seems like something else is going on that I don't understand.
Meanwhile, Paulson's bill has run into a tiny bit of resistance. I now think the outrageousness (and non-obsfucatory nature) of the first draft was a negotiating ploy. Ask for something no one can possibly give you and then you can "concede" a little bit and come to "consensus" over something that is still highly favorable to your interests.
But authorizing all $700 billion is insane. Paulson said his plan is to spend $50 billion a month (can't really spend it all at once) - so why not authorize $150 billion and then let the next President revisit the decision in January? Seems like something is fishy. Or, I guess the opposite argument would be that you need the whole thing authorized at once because the markets are so psychologically driven. If you just do $150 then maybe Wall St. thinks the rest will never come and that won't be enough in which case it won't work. So the $700 isn't really picked because of any predetermined need, it's just a really big number that will impress people into supporting the market again. But if you ask me that's a crazy way for supposed market experts to be making decisions. "We're just going to bluff and get this thing rolling again."
At this point, for what it's worth, I'm completely against this no matter what provisions get folded in. This is something that should be debated over a much longer period of time. Buffet bought in pretty big, why not wait and see if the market can pick itself up? All this rushing just seems like a scam.
Just saying where I'm at since I started this thread. But like I said, it's just really confusing and easily beyond what I understand at this point.
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Meanwhile, Paulson's bill has run into a tiny bit of resistance. I now think the outrageousness (and non-obsfucatory nature) of the first draft was a negotiating ploy. Ask for something no one can possibly give you and then you can "concede" a little bit and come to "consensus" over something that is still highly favorable to your interests.
But authorizing all $700 billion is insane. Paulson said his plan is to spend $50 billion a month (can't really spend it all at once) - so why not authorize $150 billion and then let the next President revisit the decision in January? Seems like something is fishy. Or, I guess the opposite argument would be that you need the whole thing authorized at once because the markets are so psychologically driven. If you just do $150 then maybe Wall St. thinks the rest will never come and that won't be enough in which case it won't work. So the $700 isn't really picked because of any predetermined need, it's just a really big number that will impress people into supporting the market again. But if you ask me that's a crazy way for supposed market experts to be making decisions. "We're just going to bluff and get this thing rolling again."
At this point, for what it's worth, I'm completely against this no matter what provisions get folded in. This is something that should be debated over a much longer period of time. Buffet bought in pretty big, why not wait and see if the market can pick itself up? All this rushing just seems like a scam.
Just saying where I'm at since I started this thread. But like I said, it's just really confusing and easily beyond what I understand at this point.
- jim 9-25-2008 11:40 pm