https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/three-potential-futures-for-covid-19/?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200505&instance_id=18228&nl=the-morning®i_id=79708894&segment_id=26626&te=1&user_id=f18c6affc67588a134468cc1c8d02f07
not good but likely right