...more recent posts
The new page design is still coming, but since I want to start blogging again I'm not going to wait for that. Here are some things I have been thinking about, and what I suspect this blog will focus on:
Serious bandwidth is on the way to the end user. Both fixed (like fiber to the home,) and wireless. I know it has always been the case that this is "on the way," but it's really true now. Honest. Here is a pricing page for Verizon fibre service. 30Mb/s!!! This is already deployed in some areas, and some non trivial number of people in NYC will have access to this in 2005. A lot more on this, as well as 3G wireless rollouts (also happening as we speak,) in the days ahead.
The one true device is sort of limping towards us. I wish this would go faster, but it is happening too. I mean the convergence of your computer, phone, audio/image/video player/recorder into one device you can put in your pocket. The U.S. is maddeningly behind much of the world on this, but we'll see some big strides in 2005. Something more than SMS has to fill up all that 3G wireless bandwidth. The Treo 650 and the S/E K700a are pointing the way, even if both are crippled in serious ways. Soon we are going to be able to take it all with us. Lots more on this.
And while this might not seem connected, the rich web application has arrived ahead of time. I thought we had to wait for entirely new sets of standards (like what WHAT-WG is working on,) but it turns out that today's browsers, CSS, serious javascript/DHTML magic, and even the first judicious use of Flash (!), have all ushered in the rich web application: websites that have the look, feel, and usability of a standalone desktop application. Google Mail and Flickr are leading the charge, but there are a ton of other very interesting things out there (del.icio.us, bloglines, etc...)
And finally one that I don't have a good name for yet. Something like the convergence of weblog communities with smaller, private, P2P networks. Bit Torrent and RSS are heavily involved. I guess I think of it as the dawn of the tribal age on the net. This is spurred to some degree by oppressive legal actions by those in power, but I am mainly going to steer clear of politics. Perhaps I am overly pessimistic at this point in time, but I just don't think it matters any more. Building safe, private, transparent networks of friends (extending the connections blogs have provided to connect not just words, but all media, and all the content on each of our computers,) is what I want to focus on.
Lots of bandwidth, pocket sized always on computing/media devices, rich user interface web services, all connecting people into increasingly private networks. That's how it looks from here.
So, yeah, more on all of that to come....