...more recent posts
I don't know if he wants me throwing his theories around the internet, so I'll just say that my friend B., who seems to understand more about this stuff than anyone else I know, was scaring me again last night with his near future mid-east scenarios. He thinks Bin Laden is probably already hiding in Pakistan under very tight security, and that his big play will be to show up in Mecca where he will start preaching against the infidel. We cannot bomb Mecca. It will be exceedingly difficult to go in there and get him. And of course, the infidel is not just the west, and not just the jews. It will also be the moderate Islamic leaders. And what might his rallying cry be? How about: seize the oil fields.
Probably he would need us to strike the holy land a few times first to get people really upset or else the Saudi royal familly will be able to stop him themselves. This rubs up against the well circulated ideas of Mir Tamim Ansary
who thinks the U.S. is being led into a trap. And I think Bush's use of words like 'crusade' show that he is taking the bait.
(Here's a map of Saudi Arabia showing Mecca on the west coast by the Red Sea.)
Here's a directory of central Asian news sources.
I guess Steve and I weren't the only ones to think about dropping food and medicine on Afghanistan instead of bombs. Still, I know it won't happen. Plus, it wouldn't necessarily work. Still, if we are in a struggle with a trickster like enemy it seems very foolish to react the way we are expected to react. Or maybe people don't know much about trickster spirits.
David McCusker speculates they might shut down the internet.
I swear we heard Andrea Mitchel (sp?) start to break a story last night about an investigation into someone with a massive position shorting reinsurers (is that how you would say it?) One sentence into it (on MSNBC I believe) she was cut off without a word of explanation and they just went to some other story. I can't find anything about this on the web. Very strange. I guess it would be too scary for us to know if they are that sophisticated. (Selling short is basically making a bet that a stock will go down. It involves agreeing to deliver stock that you don't yet own at some point in the future at today's prices. If the price falls between the sale and delivery dates then you buy the stock at the new lower price and deliver it at the previous agreed upon higher price. Reinsurers are the companies that insure insurance companies and are sure to be hit by a massive disaster like this. At least I think I have this right.)
The Fray has a section for first hand stories from NYC and Washington D.C. In usual Fray style, you can add your own.
Open letter to Michael Eisner: please don't outlaw the open internet. (link via htp)
[update: new link to that story is here.]
Amazing photo collection of the world's reaction.
Thursday night I pretty much lost it. I felt so helpless. I think it was the initital shock wearing off. I've noticed that in moments of crisis I go into a very unemotional state of mind. Obviously this could be a good thing if the crisis calls on you to take some action. But by Thursday night it was clear that no action was really possible. No immediate secondary attack was coming. Few survivors would be found. Nothing could be done to make the immediate situation any different. Yet I really wanted to do something. Not being able to was very frustrating. And then this was all mixed with my growing realization about where we are headed. I was starting to see lots of writing on the web calling for war. I started to get very scared. And I sort of lost it. The emotion came out.
Yesterday I didn't talk too much. Today I think I'm out the other side of that phase. Now I'm just sinking into a deeper cynicism. We walked up to Union Square Park last night and it was absolutely packed with people. Completely filled. Candles everywhere. Everyone carrying signs with anti-war slogans: "Justice not war" - "Islam is not the enemy" - "stop the cycle of violence" - things like that. People singing. Huge cheers every time a fire truck went by. Workers covered in dust, draped in American flags, having walked up from the pile. Everyone looking each other in the eye. Tears. Hugs. Love. New Yorker's seem to get it (or maybe just the one's who would be drawn to Union Square to assemble.)
But I fear the rest of the country isn't going to share the peace vibe. And regardless, it seems clear our leaders do not. There is at least a fair chance we're headed into a massive global conflict. Somebody on the national stage has to step forward and ask the basic questions. How is it that our country is rich while other countries are poor? How? And the answer can't be that "we are the chosen people" or "we work harder" or "we are better." People are very mad at us. And even a cursory look at the world would seem to give some very good reasons.
"Playing the world's policeman is not the answer to that catastrophe in New York. Playing the world's policeman is what led to it."