War (of Words) with Syria
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Wednesday, Apr 30, 2003
'Shaming effect' on Arab world
The Washington Times -- April 29
By Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, a key architect of President Bush's Iraq policy, said yesterday that the ouster of Saddam Hussein has had a "shaming effect" on the Arab and Muslim world where other tyrannical rulers exist.
"In terms of the larger picture, I think they're like several other countries on a sort of dead-end course," he said. "They're less immediately threatening to us than some of those countries, but I think they're going to have to face that opportunity."
Mr. Wolfowitz said he believes Damascus facilitated the flow of hundreds of foreign guerrillas into Iraq before and during the war.
"There's no question that paramilitaries crossed the border, and it's a pretty tightly controlled border, so I have to assume they had some degree of official sanction," he said. "That's why we expressed very strong concern about what was going on."
But since the fall of Baghdad, the Syrians appear to have stopped more paramilitary fighters from getting into Iraq. "There does seem to be a change in that respect," he said.
But the fact that Syria "should have had an indulgence in sending killers into Iraq to threaten our people, that was simply unacceptable," Mr. Wolfowitz said.
Asked whether Syria is showing signs of political reform, like Iran, Mr. Wolfowitz said Iran tolerates more diversity of opinion.
"Oddly, in a certain way Iran is a more dangerous country in some of its policies," Mr. Wolfowitz said. "But it's a more open country in terms of the degree of diversion of opinion that's possible inside Iran."
"Syria's a pretty tightly regimented place and less obviously open to political change," he said.
"But that doesn't mean it can't change. In this modern world no country is immune, except maybe North Korea, to information from the outside. And when I spoke earlier for the need for Syria to confront the dead-end that it's on, there probably are people within that regime who can understand that they're on a dead-end course. Whether they can persuade President [Bashar] Assad to change it is a different matter."
[More detail on the Lantos-Assad meeting.]
Syria Calls for Peace Talks, but Israel Voices Skepticism
New York Times -- April 29
By GREG MYRE
JERUSALEM - Responding to a Syrian call to revive peace talks, Israel said today that it was skeptical of the offer but would be willing to meet as long as Israel was not required to make concessions in advance.
The proposal by the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, was relayed to Israel by Representative Tom Lantos, a Democrat from California. He met the Syrian leader in Damascus on Saturday and saw Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel in Jerusalem on Monday.
Mr. Assad ``asked me to convey to the Israeli prime minister his desire to talk to Israel about various outstanding issues,'' Mr. Lantos told Israeli television on Monday night.
Syria Says Lebanese Hezbollah For 'Liberation'
IslamOnline -- April 26
DAMASCUS - As The United States renewed bellicose rhetoric against Syria Saturday, April 26, calling on the Arab country to cut support to Hezbollah, Damascus said the sole objective of the Lebanese Shiite group is to liberate the Israeli-occupied land.
U.S. Representative Tom Lantos (D-CA), the senior Democrat on the House of Representatives International Relations Committee, said using the "historic opportunity" to improve Syrian-U.S. ties after the downfall of Saddam Hussein is conditioned on Damascus ending support for "terrorism."
"I hope it (Syria) will not flounder on continued misguided policies like military support for Hezbollah or the maintenance of terrorist headquarters in Damascus," Lantos told reporters after talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
"Hezbollah is a political party whose sole objective is to liberate its territory from the Israeli occupation," Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bussaina Shaaban told a Washington forum.
The Syrian diplomat noted that Syria and other Middle East nations have been made nervous by the outcome of the war in Iraq and are troubled by murky U.S. motives for undertaking the invasion.
"Where are the (weapons of mass destruction) that were such a big reason for launching this war?" she asked, raising questions about long-term U.S. intentions in the Middle East.
"In many Arab countries," Shaaban added, the U.S. occupation "means the undermining of our indigenous civilization, and the bringing in (of) another, Western civilization that is not ours."
U.S. Senator Bob Graham, a Democrat from Florida, told the same forum at which Shaaban spoke that if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fails to rein in the group, Washington should take action in concert "with our allies in the global coalition on terrorism,"
Beirut favours dialogue with US on Hezbollah
Lebanese FM says his country favours three-way dialogue with Syria, US about Shiite Muslim movement.
Middle East Online -- April 29
BEIRUT - Lebanon is in favor of three-way talks with Damascus and Washington about the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement, Foreign Minister Jean Obeid said here Monday after talks with the US ambassador.
Ambassador Vincent Battle called for dialogue and "no doubt he will find the door open here and with our Syrian brothers, because it is important for us to make known our views," Obeid told reporters.
Hizbollah fires at Israeli jets over south Lebanon
Reuters -- April 29
BEIRUT - Lebanon's Hizbollah guerrilla group said it unleashed a barrage of anti-aircraft fire on Tuesday at Israeli warplanes that swooped over southern Lebanon.
"The air defence unit of the Islamic Resistance... confronted Israeli enemy warplanes that violated Lebanese sovereignty over the eastern sector of south Lebanon," a statement from the Syrian and Iranian-backed group said.
FM: Syria won't interfere in Iraq
UPI -- April 29
By Thanaa Imam
DAMASCUS, Syria -- Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa said Tuesday his country will not interfere in Iraq's internal affairs and noted that forming a temporary administration in Baghdad was normal, but difficult.
"We don't wish to interfere in the Iraqi affairs," Sharaa said during a joint news conference with visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul in Damascus.
He, however, said Syria and Iraq had "historical ties deriving from centuries of joint interests that no regime can cancel."
[Depends on the definition of the word "threaten".]
Rumsfeld Says United States Not Threatening Syria
Rueters -- April 29
"We have no hidden agenda," Rumsfeld told a news conference after talks in Riyadh with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz.
"I think it's a mischaracterization that we threatened Syria. We are not in the business of threatening," Rumsfeld said. "It was a fact, not a threat and that's all I have to say."
Powell to Visit Syria and Lebanon, but Delays Israel Trip
New York Times, April 29
By STEVEN R. WEISMAN
WSHINGTON — Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, preparing for an intensive new phase of American diplomacy in the Middle East, said today that he would travel to Syria and Lebanon this week. At the same time, administration officials said that a long-awaited plan intended to restart negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians would be published on Wednesday.
Mr. Powell will meet with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria in Damascus on Saturday and pay a visit to Lebanon the same day, the Bush administration announced.
Mr. Powell told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today that while in Syria he would press Mr. Assad further on American demands that Syria hand over any Iraqi leaders who had fled there during the war. The United States also wants Syria to end its support of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations that use Syrian territory or Syrian-held territory in Lebanon as a base for attacks on Israel.
[A story covered previously spoke of preparations to respond to Hezbollah.]
U.S. Fears Hizbullah Retaliation
Middle East News Online -- April 22
"It has a significant presence of its trained operatives inside the United States waiting for the call to action," Sen. Bob Graham, a former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said. "In recent years they have been infiltrating into this core in the United States people who have gone through their training camps and have the skills of terrorist activity."
via What Really Happened
Dissonance
Compare the differences in wording from two different entries in the CIA World Factbook. Current rhetoric from the Bush administration has introduced the word "occupation" to the description of the Syrian deployment in Lebanon.
Syria
Since 1976, Syrian troops have been stationed in Lebanon, ostensibly in a peacekeeping capacity.
Lebanon
Syria maintains about 20,000 troops in Lebanon based mainly in Beirut, North Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley. Syria's troop deployment was legitimized by the Arab League during Lebanon's civil war and in the Ta'if Accord. Damascus justifies its continued military presence in Lebanon by citing Beirut's requests and the failure of the Lebanese Government to implement all of the constitutional reforms in the Ta'if Accord.
Hizbollah Urges Muslims to Defend Syria Against US
Reuters -- April 22
By Mariam Karouny
BEIRUT - Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah called on Arab and Muslim states on Tuesday to defend Syria if the United States launched any military action against Damascus.
[Discussion of cabinet shakeup and Syria's role in same. Report on Lahoud's speech about Lebanese security in light of regional situation.]
HARIRI’S FIFTH GOVERNMENT A CABINET OF SOLIDARITY WITH SYRIA
Monday Morning (Beirut) -- April 21
Lahoud condemned the recent US threats made against both Syria and Lebanon, “especially those focussing on Syria”, saying it was “unfair to punish the Lebanese and the Syrians for standing by Iraq and insisting on a peaceful solution”.
Speaking to a delegation of Army officers visiting Baabda Palace and led by the Army commander-in-chief, General Michel Sleiman, the president said that “Israel’s way of collecting the fruits of the US victory in Iraq depends largely on discrediting Lebanon and Syria and describing them as supporting the Iraqi regime instead of the Iraqi people”.
Lebanon’s support, the president explained, was aimed at alleviating the ill-effects of the invasion on the Iraqi people, adding that Israel’s game was already known since it was under pressure to implement the ‘road map’ peace plan that promises an independent Palestinian state by 2005. But to make up for that pressure, Tel Aviv wanted to strip Lebanon and Syria of any ability to resist or of any negotiating leverage.
[Gingrich expounds on diplomacy at the AEI.]
Gingrich blasts 'diplomatic failure' at State Department
White House defends Powell
CNN -- April 22
"The concept of the American secretary of state going to Damascus to meet with a terrorist-supporting, secret-police-wielding dictator is ludicrous," said Gingrich, who resigned the speakership under fire in 1999. He had represented Georgia as a Republican congressman. "The United States military has created an opportunity to apply genuine economic, diplomatic and political pressure on Syria."
[Analysis of US pressure and its effects on Syria's politics.]
Syria's stark choice
Assad must decide whether to purge prominent figures from his regime or face renewed US wrath
Guardian -- April 21
Brian Whitaker
Syria, unfortunately, is playing directly into the hands of American neo-conservatives.
According to diplomatic sources, the onslaught from Washington is by no means over, and the US is now threatening to expose key business figures in Syria over military sales to Saddam's regime.
The American move could plunge Syria into political turmoil because those involved are closely linked to the country's "old guard" - senior members of the regime who retained power after the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, succeeded his father almost three years ago.
More articles by Brian Whitaker.
Syria welcomes Bush's soothing comments
Syrian FM says Damascus always favored dialogue with Washington following US President's statement.
Middle East Online -- April 21
DAMASCUS - Syria welcomed Monday an apparent softening of US charges against Damascus, with Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara saying the country always favored dialogue to confrontation with Washington.
"We welcome the recent statement by President (George W.) Bush and I would like to add that Syria from the beginning never wanted confrontation but dialogue with the USA," he told reporters during a joint press conference with visiting Spanish counterpart Ana Palacio.
[Lieberman uses language similar to my previous commentary -- that Syria hasn't decided yet.]
Lieberman: 'Aggressive diplomacy' needed in Syria
AP via The Advocate -- April 20
NEW HAVEN, Conn. -- U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., says "very aggressive diplomacy" and possible economic sanctions are needed to persuade Syria to join sides with the United States and against terrorism.
Lieberman, a candidate for president in 2004, told CBS' "Face the Nation" in an interview broadcast Sunday that the Syrians have not taken sides. He said they have provided some help to America in pursuing al-Qaida terrorists, but continue to house and support several terrorist groups.
"Remember that after Sept. 11, when we declared that war on terrorism, we said it was time for the nations of the world to take sides," Lieberman said. "Either they were with us or they were with the terrorists. The Syrians have not clearly taken sides
[Lengthy report on Hezbollah. Discusses potential access by Hezbollah to WMD in Iran and Syria. Discusses Hezbollah's successful resistance to Israeli occupation of Lebanon, and their involvement with Palestinian militants.]
Hezbollah: "A-Team Of Terrorists"
60 Minutes -- April 18
(CBS) This is what deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage had in mind a few months ago when he pinned this label on Hezbollah.
"Hezbollah may be the 'A-Team of Terrorists' and maybe al-Qaeda is actually the 'B' team. And they're on the list and their time will come,” says Armitage. “There is no question about it - it's all in good time. And we're going to go after these problems just like a high school wrestler goes after a match. We're going to take them down one at a time."
But Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Hasan Nasrallah, who we met in Beirut, insists that his group no longer poses a threat to the U.S. Unlike the leadership of al-Qaeda, he isn't hiding from anyone. You may never have heard of Nasrallah before, but he is a hugely popular figure, not just in the region but also among Arabs living in the West
[This blog may be morphing into a war of words with militant groups in Lebanon. Good thing I didn't hard code the name. In Lebanon, Nasrallah spoke of "Death to America". But he probably came to realize those words were amplified far beyond Beirut. Hezbollah seems to want to do some PR in the US to avoid being the most obvious target for US retalitation to Arab retaliation to the invasion.]
US faces retaliation: Hezbollah
AFP via news.com.au -- April 21
The US-led war in Iraq will encourage Islamic militants to retaliate against the United States, the leader of the Lebanon-based Shiite Muslim militant group Hezbollah has said.
"American policies in the region encourage this kind of retaliation, whether we agree with it or not," Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah told CBS television's 60 Minutes program.
[Next stop Bekaa Valley?]
US prepares for strike by Hezbollah
Sunday Times (UK) via Daily Times (Pakistan) -- April 20
By Tony Allen-Mills
WASHINGTON: American military planners have been told to draw up options for possible retaliatory action against Hezbollah and other Middle Eastern terrorist groups in the event of suicide attacks on US forces in Iraq, according to official sources in Washington. Intelligence specialists have concluded that the greatest threat to US military bases in Iraq may come from groups operating out of Syria.
“The opportunities for mischief-making that might make a pretext for escalation have just multiplied enormously,” said John Pike, a military specialist with globalsecurity.org, a Washington think tank.
The influx of American troops had presented the region’s terrorists with “a target-rich environment”, Pike said. Anti-American operations might include border incursions by Hezbollah guerrillas or groups operating out of Iran, and car or truck bomb attacks on US targets in Baghdad. Other sources said that if Hezbollah went on the offensive, the Pentagon would respond in kind.
[Bush on Syria at Fort Hood, Lugar on Iraq at Meet the Press, Woolsey on Syria at Fox News Sunday.]
Bush Hails Signs That Syria Is Starting to Cooperate on Iraq
New York Times -- April 20
By JOHN TIERNEY
WASHINGTON — President Bush emerged from Easter services today with unusually peaceful words for Syria, which his administration has accused of aiding Iraq during the war and sheltering its leaders as fighting ended.
James Woolsey, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency under President Clinton, criticized Syria's leader, Bashar Assad, for being "really over the line" last month by raising the prospect of terrorist attacks against American troops in Iraq. "He is on the side of the terrorists and those who would, I think, like to continue to run totalitarian regimes in the Middle East," Mr. Woolsey said in an appearance on "Fox News Sunday."
[A review of the war of words over the past week or so.]
Next Stop: Syria?
The Bush Administration applies the screws to another "rogue nation." What's behind the sudden indictment — and how scared should Damascus be?
Time -- April 28
By ROMESH RATNESAR
Just days after U.S. troops entered Baghdad, the Bush Administration was already contemplating a new scrape. A group of the President's top foreign-policy advisers — including Condoleezza Rice, Donald Rumsfeld and Colin Powell — gathered in the White House to discuss the road ahead. Only half the meeting was devoted to developments in Iraq. The rest of the session was spent debating how to tackle a fresh target: Syria.
Hawks recycle arguments for Iraq war against Syria
The Washington Times -- April 16
By David R. Sands
The talk over war with Syria increasingly resembles a spring rerun of the debate over war with Iraq, with virtually the same cast of characters and plot.
Neoconservative Richard Perle, a leading hawk in the Iraq debate, yesterday called for Congress to pass a "Syrian Liberation Act" modeled on the 1998 law that made regime change in Baghdad official U.S. policy.
via a warblogging post with commentary and links
[Review of Hezbollah speech from several days ago, plus background on the organization.]
Hezbollah Vows Anew to Target Americans
Bush officials, fearing attacks, debate whether to go after the group and backers Iran and Syria.
Los Angeles Times -- April 17
By Josh Meyer
WASHINGTON -- Hezbollah, a militant Islamic organization backed by Iran and Syria, has issued a new call to arms against Americans in the Middle East, touching off fears of terrorist attacks and debate withinthe Bush administration over whether to move more aggressively against the group and its key sponsors.
The military wing of Hezbollah, long considered by the U.S. to be among the world's most dangerous terrorist groups, has focused largely on Israel because of its past occupation of Hezbollah's homeland in Lebanon and other contested territory. But the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq has triggered a spate of anti-American rhetoric from the Shiite organization and its leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.
Bush says Syria's `getting the message' on Iraq
AP via San Francisco Chronicle -- April 20
SCOTT LINDLAW
FORT HOOD, Texas --
President Bush said Sunday that Syria is "getting the message" that it should not cooperate with the ousted regime of Saddam Hussein but should help the United States capture fleeing Iraqi leaders.
The president lowered recently intense rhetoric against Iraq's neighbor to the west. Tensions between the United States and Syria escalated after reports surfaced that members of Saddam's deposed government had crossed the border to flee the U.S.-led war.
Syria, Egypt Leaders Discuss Iraq, U.S. Pressure
Reuters -- April 20
By Inal Ersan
DAMASCUS - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak met Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on Sunday for talks on postwar Iraq and tension between Damascus and Washington over Syria's alleged chemical weapons.
"Syria expects Egypt to use its good offices with Washington to help defuse the tension," a diplomatic source said.
Assad assures U.S. congressmen that Syria will not give asylum to wanted Iraqis
AP via San Francisco Chronicle -- April 20
DONNA ABU-NASR
DAMASCUS --
Syria will not give asylum to Iraqis wanted for war crimes and will expel any Iraqi who crosses into the country, President Bashar Assad told two U.S. congressmen Sunday, the lawmakers said.
Reps. Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., and Darrell Issa, R-Calif., were the first U.S. officials to meet Assad since the recent escalation of U.S.-Syrian tensions. In an interview with The Associated Press, they described a calm Assad who is eager to address U.S. concerns raised since the Iraq war.
US Deputy Secretary of State: Syria may face sanctions; Congressman: Syria wants dialogue
Al Bawaba -- April 20
Syria will face "sanctions" if it continues to support movements such as Lebanon's Hizbullah and the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said.
"If Syria decided to maintain its support for terrorism, particularly of Hizbullah and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, we will be forced to impose sanctions and other political measures on it," Armitage told the Al-Khaleej daily, published in the United Arab Emirates
[Discussion of how several factors may affect the road map: US-UK relations, US-Syria relations, Palestinian internal politics, Israeli internal politics.]
Syria Tensions May Stall Plan
Forward -- April 18
CHEMI SHALEV
JERUSALEM — Rising tensions between Washington and Damascus may serve to delay the launch of the much-anticipated "road map" to Israeli-Palestinian peace, senior Israeli officials told the Forward this week.
An escalation in U.S.-Syrian tensions is likely to heat up Israel's northern border, the officials said, forcing Washington to concentrate on yet another Middle East crisis and to postpone the new initiative on the Israeli-Palestinian front.
[Profile of Bashar al-Assad.]
Behind Warnings to Damascus: Reassessment of Younger Assad
Forward (New York) -- April 18
By MARC PERELMAN
A sudden flurry of U.S. warnings to Syria in recent days indicates that Washington has undertaken what Israel and its supporters here have been urging for months: a comprehensive reassessment of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad.
Sharon Aide Makes the Case For U.S. Action Against Syria
Forward -- April 18
By ORI NIR
WASHINGTON — Breaking the self-imposed silence it maintained during the buildup to the war with Iraq and throughout the war itself, Israel publicly called on the United States this week to take decisive action against Syria and Iran.
Making the case in Washington was Ephraim Halevy, Prime Minister Sharon's national security advisor, who formerly headed Israel's central intelligence agency, the Mossad. In meetings with senior administration officials, Halevy focused on Syria's weapons of mass destruction and — for the first time — on its young president, Bashar Assad, whom he described as inexperienced, irresponsible, arrogant and brash. Assad, said Halevy, is a potential source of instability in the region, warning that "a miscalculation on his part could have very serious consequences."
On both Iran and Syria, Halevy said: "There are so many measures short of war that could be employed in containing" both countries in their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and their backing of terrorism.
[Long article reviewing POW situation in Iraq, with coverage of infiltration of Iraq by militants from Syria.]
Fighters From Syria Among Iraqi Prisoners in an American Camp
The New York Times -- April 19
By BERNARD WEINRAUB
SOUTH OF BAGHDAD — In a bleak sun-baked desert field, surrounded by multiple layers of barbed wire, Iraqi prisoners climb off buses and are placed in a holding area for interrogation by military intelligence officers. Each prisoner will be photographed and a database will be searched for clues of his past.
At least three or four new prisoners a day are Syrian, and others are Palestinian, Sudanese or Jordanian. They are sometimes collectively referred to as Syrians here because many entered Iraq from Syria.
"They're obnoxious, arrogant, they have a vendetta," said Captain Murdock, who commands the National Guard unit from Phoenix. "You ask them why they were fighting in Iraq, and they say, `To kill Americans.' Others just say they came to die and kill Americans."
[Analysis of Syria's relationship with resistance/terrorist groups.]
With Iraq War Over, Wariness of U.S. Pervades Syria
Washington Post -- April 19
By Daniel Williams
DAMASCUS -- At a spartan three-story apartment building in a dusty suburb here, members of the Islamic Resistance Movement, known by its Arabic acronym Hamas, idled over sweet tea and wondered how long their stay would last. The Palestinian group, which in recent years has spearheaded attacks on civilians in Israel, has long maintained an office here. Now, its presence has become part of a diplomatic conflict between the Bush administration and the Syrian government of President Bashar Assad.
The United States views Hamas's office as evidence that Syria supports terrorism. It also cites the presence of Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian group, and Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim guerrilla organization that long fought Israeli occupation forces in south Lebanon. The Israelis pulled out three years ago after suffering casualties there for many years. The Bush administration also accuses Syria of possessing chemical weapons and of giving shelter to fugitives from the government of Saddam Hussein, the deposed Iraqi president.
[Commentary with some nice background links.]
On to Syria! - but not quite yet....
The Lincoln Plawg -- April 18
It's a measure of the ascendancy of the bellophiles in USG that a statement from Powell that the US has no plans to attack Syria is thought to be some kind of news.
via Stand Down
[Sample from an aggregation of regional press editorials.]
New Lebonese Cabinet Anachronistic
L’Orient-Le Jour (Beirut) via The Daily Star -- April 19
The birth of the fifth government headed by Rafik Hariri has received only lukewarm response from the Lebanese press. The new team was described by L’Orient-Le Jour as medieval, anachronistic and obsolete.
“The new government is completely out of phase with what is going on in the region,” the paper said.
At a time when democracy is either being forced on Iraq, the heart of the Arab world, or seeping in to some Gulf countries, “the Syrian tutors and their Lebanese disciples continue to resist” the democratic process. The two countries are “involved in a senseless struggle against the forces of history, common sense and the salvation of the two countries.”
Syrian President Bashar Assad has wasted a good opportunity for introducing reforms to his country’s politics with Lebanon, before introducing corresponding reforms to his country’s domestic politics, the paper added.
[Moderate words of support for Syria and "international law" from Lebanonese and Egyption governments -- followed by less moderate words from Sudan.]
The US accusations / Condemnations
Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) via Lebanon Press -- April 19
Lebanese President, Emil Lahoud has asserted Syria’s and Lebanon’s commitment to the principled stance on the bases of the international legitimacy resolutions.
Summary and Conjecture: The question has been posed to Assad
This past weekend the anti-Syria rhetoric from the Bush administration reached its high water mark. Since the appearance on Tuesday of the Guardian article asserting that Bush vetoed the invasion of Syria, the rhetoric has been settling down. Voices from the DoD and White House are muted or silent. Powell is the primary administration voice on Syria at this point. And Powell is mixing tough talk with conciliatory talk.
The US and Israel continue to back Abu Mazen as the new voice of Palestine, and must deliver some form of progress to the Palestinians to maintain Mazen's credibility. Significant progress won't come without security gains on the Israeli-Lebanese border, or Sharon will lose credibility with his own power base. Israel has signalled to the US with public comments that dismantling the organizations which threaten Israel from Lebanon would be enough to satisfy their concerns about a northern front.
Various voices in the US government and in the conservative media have suggested a Lebanon or Bekaa gambit instead of an full-scale invasion of Syria. A few days ago, I suggested that Bashar al-Assad might pull a Musharraf -- that faced with threats and incentives he would sell out his radical Hezbollah friends.
I believe that the question is still before Assad: sell out Hezbollah and be rehabilitated in the eyes of America, or stand by Hezbollah and suffer the political and economic wrath of the US.
I don't know enough about Lebanese politics to get a reading on the recent reshuffle of the cabinet. But stacking the cabinet with loyalists better prepares Assad to keep a grip on Lebanon whether he takes a confrontational or conciliatory stance towards the US.
[This commentary proposes using political means to take down the regimes in Iran and Syria. The Lebanese gambit is proposed as a method to weaken Assad.]
The end of the beginning
The Spectator -- April 12
Michael Ledeen
We should unleash the full panoply of political weapons on behalf of Lebanese freedom: a vigorous human-rights campaign, attention to the many stories of brutality and abuse coming from the lively Lebanese diaspora, political observers at every Lebanese election, demands for shutting down the infamous terrorist-training camps in the Bekaa Valley (where every terror group worthy of note has extensive facilities), investigations into the state of religious freedom, and so forth. Lebanese exiles should get special status, pending the liberation of their country.
via Salon via Tom Tomorrow
[Analysis of recent signals in Iranian-American relations and Syrian-American relations.]
Syria, Iran: has the US reshuffled priorities?
Al Jazeera -- April 19
Cilina Nasser
Iranian President Mohammad Khatami refrained from criticizing the US on Friday in a speech addressed to thousands of the Iranian armed forces, focusing on the brutality of the toppled Iraqi government.
[Statements of confidence from Hezbollah. Following the section quoted below, the article cites Arab analysts speaking on the Syrian/Lebanese/Israeli/American situation.]
Syria Won’t Fail Anti-Israel Resistance: Hizbullah
IslamOnline -- April 19
By Hani Mohammed
CAIRO - Syria will not bargain with the United States over Hizbollah in view of the latest bellicose threats against Syria after Saddam Hussein’s regime had passed into history, Hizbullah’s Spokesman Hassan Ezzudin told IslamOnline.net late Friday, April 18.
“Anti-U.S. occupation powers are, in fact, rallying behind Syria and in harmony with its stances and Syria will never fail such powers,” Ezzudin said.
That is why “Hizbullah has no worries that Syria might be armtwisted by the US pressures and fail anti-Israeli resistance movement like Hizbollah,” he said, noting that such movements were serving as the stronghold against occupation.
The Hizbullah media official, meanwhile, ruled out that some countries, which forged strategic and diplomatic relations with Hizbullah such as Iran and some Arab countries, would pressure Syria into toeing the American line.
Ezzudin said Israel may be behind the latest string of U.S. threats against Syria, pointing out that Israel was fishing in troubled waters to provoke the U.S. into taking military action against Syria or Lebanon.
[A story from last month, but it gives some background on the Hezbollah-Israel conflict.]
On 2nd Anniversary of Israeli Withdrawal, Lebanese Protest Israeli Continued Occupation
IslamOnline -- May 26
ABBASSIYEH (IslamOnline & News Agencies) – On the second anniversary of Israel's May 24, 2000, troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon, more than 200 villagers of Abbassiyeh, destroyed by Israel in 1967 and now under reconstruction, protested Sunday, May 26, for an end to Israel's continued occupation of two-thirds of their border village.
Men, women and children flocked in from other regions in Lebanon and neighboring Syria, to where many Abbassiyeh families fled after the invasion and destruction of the village in 1967, Agence France-Presse (AFP) said.
The families marched to the Indian post of the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, UNIFIL, carrying Lebanese flags and those of the Islamic resistance movement, Hizbullah.
"Abbassiyeh and the Shebaa Farms will only return to the homeland through resistance," said banners carried by the protestors who were marking the second anniversary of Israel's troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon after 22 years of occupation.
The protest march was organized by Hizbullah whose resistance forces were instrumental in leading to the 2000 Israeli withdrawal, AFP reported.
[More on the Lebanese cabinet shake up. Is Assad strengthening his hand in Lebanon in preparation for standing tough, or in preparation for selling out Hizbullah?]
Lebanon's New Cabinet Will Foster Close Syria Ties
Reuters -- April 19
BEIRUT - Lebanon's new cabinet said on Saturday it would foster close ties with its political master Syria, which has been accused by the U.S. of harboring Iraqi officials after the fall of Saddam Hussein's government.
Speaking after the cabinet's first meeting, Lebanese Information Minister Michel Samaha said both President Emile Lahoud and Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri had urged close links with Syria, which keeps some 15,000 troops in Lebanon.
[Surprised?]
Pentagon Expects Long-Term Access to Four Key Bases in Iraq
New York Times -- April 19
By THOM SHANKER and ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON — The United States is planning a long-term military relationship with the emerging government of Iraq, one that would grant the Pentagon access to military bases and project American influence into the heart of the unsettled region, senior Bush administration officials say.
Although the new bases in Iraq are primarily for mounting comprehensive postwar security operations, senior administration officials make no secret that the American presence at those bases near Syria and Iran and long-term access to them "will make them nervous."
Or as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell put it on Thursday: "We have been successful in Iraq. There is a new dynamic in that part of the world."
Even so, administration officials are quick to echo Mr. Powell's assertions that Washington has "no war plan right now" for Syria and Iran.
"So don't ask if our tanks are going to move right or left out of Iraq," said one senior administration official. "There are a lot of political weapons that can be unleashed to achieve our goals."
Among the pressures to be exerted against Syria will be a campaign to focus the world's attention on a new administration message. "Syria occupies Lebanon," one senior administration official said. "This is the repression of one Arab state by another. Plus there are terror training camps in the Bekaa Valley."
In addition to tamping down public anxiety over possible military action against Syria, or even Iran, officials are quick to argue that these two nations have the most significant vote as to whether the United States will ever apply the template of "regime change" in Iraq to them.
"This does not mean, necessarily, that other governments have to fall," one senior administration official said. "They can moderate their behavior."
UPI via Washington Times -- April 19
Analysis: On the road to Damascus
By Claude Salhani
DAMASCUS -- Accusations by several Bush administration officials that Syria possesses chemical weapons and may be harboring some of Iraq's leading Baathists -- now on the run -- have been received in Damascus with concern and trepidation.
The concern stems from what the United States might do next as it consolidates its position in Iraq and pursues its vision of the Middle East road map. Many officials here in Damascus fear this map is set on a course that could lead to disaster for them, as well as for the United States.
"We are afraid," admitted a senior government official to United Press International. "These are the same warnings the Americans made to Iraq six months ago. It started out with small accusations and ended up with an invasion of the country."
At the same time the Syrian official warned the Americans that they, too, should be worried. "They are awakening religious consciousness in the Arab world that is very dangerous and that will come back to haunt them."
The official, who asked not to be named, explained America's invasion of Iraq could unleash Islamic forces that could turn Iraq into an Islamic country. "This is not something America wants and not something Syria wants either," he added.
AP via Salon.com -- April 18
Syria divides Democratic candidates
Nedra Pickler
WASHINGTON -- Now that Saddam Hussein has been removed from power in Iraq, a new military issue is dividing Democrats running for president, how to deal with Syria.
Presidential candidate Bob Graham, a Florida senator who voted against the resolution authorizing force against Iraq, suggested military action against Syria might be necessary.
"We threw a few cruise missiles into the terrorist training camps in Afghanistan ... that's what we may have to do in Syria," he told the Orlando Sentinel after an appearance during the weekend in his home state.
[An overview of recent moves to ease tensions: visa restrictions, US congressional delegation, softer tone in Syrian government press.]
Ha'aretz -- April 19
Syria tightens visa restrictions on Iraqis
DAMASCUS - In an apparent effort to counter U.S. charges that it is giving safe haven to former members of Saddam Hussein's regime, Syria has banned any Iraqi not already holding a visa from entering the country, airline sources confirmed Saturday.
The conciliatory gesture was another sign that Syria is seeking to ease tensions with Washington over Iraq ahead of an expected visit soon by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.
Meanwhile, a delegation from the United States Congress arrived Saturday in Damascus to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad to discuss the U.S.-backed road map for Middle East peace and U.S. accusations against Syria.
[This opinion piece out of Beirut discusses the reshuffling of the Lebanese cabinet.]
The Daily Star -- April 19
Prepared for the worst
Michael Young
It was a pity former Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf was not in Beirut this week. He would have been ideal to sell the preposterous official line that the change of government in Lebanon had nothing to do with American pressures on Syria.
Several things can be said about the new government. First, neither President Emile Lahoud nor Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is happy with it. The two never got along, but the previous arrangement gave them enough followers so that they were satisfied. The latest team will mostly include men whose primary loyalty is owed to Syria, so that what we now have is a government of obdurate apparatchiks.
...
The government also provides the Syrians with several options. It has the ideological coloring necessary to allow them to stifle Hizbullah if that becomes imperative, but also to cover for a full or partial Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon if Damascus deems this necessary to protect its eastern flank. One should watch and see what Syrian President Bashar Assad does in the coming weeks, particularly if the Bush administration raises the heat on him by making demands on Hizbullah and on Damascus-based militant Palestinian groups.
...
There is another problem: By turning the government into a bastion of pro-Syrian diehards, Damascus has brought Lebanon into the front lines of its dispute with the United States. We should expect to get hit by Washington’s backhands, whether directed against Hizbullah or the economy. That’s a pity. Acting tough is useful only if you have the resources to endure. Syria and Lebanon do not.
At least we can take solace in the fact that by standing united we might fall much the same way.
Michael's blog, beirut calling
[Some detail on the proposed sanctions.]
NewsMax -- April 19
The Return of the Syria Accountability Act
In 2002, well before the war in Iraq focused attention on Syria’s terrorist connections, Saddam sympathies, and military aid to the enemy, elements in the U.S. Congress were ready to unload sanctions on the Arab country. Now that stalled effort is back on track with new momentum spawned by a White House that is calling the Hezbollah- harboring country a “rogue nation.”
Last year, Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Penn., introduced the Syria Accountability Act -- only to see it languish as the Bush administration reportedly worked behind the scenes to quash it as a distraction from Iraq and as inappropriate considering Syria’s ostensible cooperation with the U.S. in ferreting out al-Qaida.
But Rep. Eliot L. Engel, D-N.Y., reintroduced the Syria Accountability Act in the House a week ago, remarking, "I just think it is really time to get tough with Syria."
CNN - April 19
Iraq neighbors urge U.S. to leave
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- The U.S.-led coalition must bring stability and security to Iraq and then remove its "occupying" forces from the country as quickly as possible, foreign ministers from neighboring countries have said.
Represented at the meeting were six countries that border Iraq -- Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Iran, Kuwait and Jordan -- as well as Egypt and Bahrain.
The ministers meeting in Riyadh Friday also endorsed a proposal floated this week by Syria to make the Middle East a region free of weapons of mass destruction. They also criticized recent comments by Bush administration officials accusing Syria of giving refuge to members of the deposed Iraqi regime.
[An old story, but worth repeating.]
Ha'aretz -- February 18, 2003
Sharon says U.S. should also disarm Iran, Libya and Syria
By Aluf Benn
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said yesterday that Iran, Libya and Syria should be stripped of weapons of mass destruction after Iraq. "These are irresponsible states, which must be disarmed of weapons mass destruction, and a successful American move in Iraq as a model will make that easier to achieve," Sharon said to a visiting delegation of American congressmen.
Sharon told the congressmen that Israel was not involved in the war with Iraq "but the American action is of vital importance."
via antiwar.com
Ha'aretz -- April 19
Analysis / Assad begins to fold as the U.S. demands Damascus behave appropriately
By Zvi Bar'el
The verbal missiles cruising in recent days between Washington and Damascus obscured an even more interesting statement made this week. Iranian President Mohammed Khatami said in public that "Iran won't defend Syria if it comes under attack by the United States,"and that "if the U.S. changes its behavior toward Iran, it is possible to consider a change in Iran's policy toward the U.S."
Khatami's statements have a special significance in light of the tensions between the U.S. and Syria, even though they do not have an immediate practical implication.
Islam Online -- April 17
U.S. Presses Syria To Kill Anti-Israel Resistance: DFLP
By Abdul Raheem Ali
CAIRO - The current American and Zionist pressures on Syria are aimed at bringing to a cessation all forms of support rendered by Syria to Arab movements resisting the Israeli occupation, particularly Hezbollah, Secretary General of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) Nayeef Hawatma told IslamOnline.net Thursday, April 17.
[Non-information.]
White House -- April 16
Press Gaggle with Scott McClelland, spokesman
Q Any indication that Syria is cooperating?
MR. McCLELLAN: Well, Syria knows our views. And they know what they need to do. I think there are people closer to the situation there that would be in a better position to brief you on the exact specifics of it -- of the current situation.
[Non-information.]
White House -- April 17
Press Gaggle with Claire Buchan, Deputy Press Secretary, at Crawford Elementary School
Q Syria's proposal that there's a weapons-free zone within the Middle East, including Israel, as well? Is that something that the administration is even listening to or considering? And d you know where that is?
MS. BUCHAN: Well, Syria -- we have made clear what Syria needs to do. They know our views and I will leave it at that.
[Release from US about Powell's Thursday night interview on PBS, followed by transcript.]
US Department of State -- April 18
Powell Urges Syria to Reconsider Its Policies
Says Middle East would be better off without WMD
"As I have said previously, and the President has certainly indicated
in his own remarks, there is no war plan on anyone's desk right now to
go marching on Syria," Powell said.
Powell said the reason why Syria is being highlighted now is that
there is a "changed situation" and "a new dynamic" in the Middle East
following the liberation of Iraq.
---
MR. LEHRER: Well, as you know, this has been read in the Arab world,
and also in some places in Europe and elsewhere, the United States as
saying, "Hey, Syria, look next door at what happened to Iraq. If you
don't get your act together, the same thing could happen to you."
Is that a correct message? Is that the message the U.S. wanted to
send?
SECRETARY POWELL: It's not a message the United States has delivered.
The President hasn't spoken in those terms. Neither have I, and, for
that matter, neither has Don Rumsfeld or Condi Rice.
[We take a break from our usual content for a story from the far eastern front. North Korea drops its defiant stance in reaction to US success in Iraq. But ... doh!]
U.S. official: N. Korea move 'insulting'
Upcoming talks in doubt
CNN -- April 18
From Elise Labott
WASHINGTON -- A senior Bush administration official said Friday the United States is reconsidering whether to hold talks with North Korea after the East Asian nation said it is again reprocessing nuclear fuel rods.
[An overview of recent developments.]
Ha'aretz -- April 18
Powell may visit Mideast, will focus on peace process
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday that he may soon visit the Middle East, including Syria, to push for Israeli-Palestinian peace and to press Damascus on its suspected weapons programs and support for Saddam Hussein's dying regime.
CBS News -- April 17
Hezbollah Turns Up The Volume
They were once considered the baddest of the bad, at the top of the pecking order of Middle East terrorist organizations. Until Sept. 11, Hezbollah - the so-called "Party of God" - had killed more Americans than any other group, starting with 241 Marines in a suicide bombing of their Beirut barracks in 1983.
Lately, however, Hezbollah had been relatively quiet, letting groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad take the lead in suicide bombing attacks against Israel and leaving al Qaeda to press the attack against America.
But, as CBS News Correspondent Jim Stewart reports, Hezbollah has suddenly started talking loud again. Even before U.S. forces invaded Iraq, the group began calling for suicide attacks against American forces. And U.S. officials have left no doubt they now consider the Party of God as dangerous as al Qaeda ever was.
"I'll tell you that Hezbollah, as an organization with capability and worldwide presence, is its equal, if not a far more capable organization," CIA Director George Tenet told Congress on Feb. 12.
[Report on cabinet shake-up with analysis of internal and external factors.]
Middle East Online -- April 18
Lebanon unveils most pro-Syrian cabinet ever
By Najib Khazzaka
BEIRUT -
Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri formed a new government Thursday, the most pro-Syrian yet since Damascus imposed its will on its smaller neighbor more than a decade ago, and amid US threats against Syria.
In keeping with tradition, the 30-member cabinet was evenly divided between Muslims and Christians, but it is entirely dominated by long-time allies of Syria or others, notably Christians, who have joined the pro-Syrian camp.
The Daily Star -- April 18
US warns Lebanon against harboring Saddam’s cronies
Khalil Fleihan
Washington has warned Lebanon against providing passage or shelter to fleeing members of Saddam Hussein’s regime, diplomatic sources said Thursday.
According to the sources, the request was conveyed by US Ambassador Vincent Battle to Prime Minister Rafik Hariri hours before the latter handed in his resignation on Tuesday. The embassy later conveyed the request to the Lebanese Foreign Ministry as well.
Washington Times -- April 18
World Scene
Lebanon - Prime minister forms new government
BEIRUT — Lebanon said yesterday that Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, whose sudden resignation brought down the government, had formed a new Cabinet that retained economic policy-makers but left out key Christian opposition figures.
The lineup did not include members of the Christian opposition to Syria's grip on Lebanon, who analysts had expected might gain a seat in the 30-member Cabinet, which must still be approved by Parliament.
Mr. al-Hariri resigned Tuesday in a move that paved the way for a new government, but lawmakers later voted to retain him and asked him to form a Cabinet.
Arab Media Internet Network (AMIN) -- April 15
Is Syria next after Iraq?
By: Elias Zananiri
Intelligence reports reaching Washington suggested that even after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime, Syria had been coordinating extensively with Hizbollah in Lebanon how to harm the American forces in Iraq. The idea, according to those reports, was to make Iraq for the Americans what Lebanon was for the Israelis before they pulled out of Lebanon in May 2000.
Reuters -- April 18
Mideast States Mull Post-War Iraq as US Warns Syria
By Andrew Hammond
RIYADH - Middle East nations began debating post-Saddam Hussein Iraq on Friday as the United States forged ahead with its own plans for a nation crushed by war.
Among eight countries at the first postwar regional forum was Syria, accused by Washington of sheltering Saddam aides and developing chemical weapons. Syria denies both charges.
The Riyadh meeting was hosted by Saudi Arabia to discuss the implications for the region of the crushing U.S. victory. Foreign ministers of Iraq's neighbors Turkey, Iran, Syria, Kuwait and Jordan as well as Egypt and Bahrain attended.
An opening statement read at the talks criticized what it said were U.S. threats against Syria and called for the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq to be as brief as possible.
"We absolutely refuse the recent threat against Syria which can only increase the likelihood of a new circle of war and hatred, especially in light of the continuing deterioration of the Palestinian situation," said the statement read out by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal.
"We call on the United States to use dialogue with Syria and to activate the (Middle East) peace process," it said, welcoming a possible visit to Syria by Secretary of State Colin Powell.
AP via Hindustan Times -- April 18
Syria may expel some Iraqis: US officials
Washington -
Syria may be preparing to quietly expel some members of the Iraqi government who have sought refuge inside its borders, US officials have said.
[Political discussion from Australia.]
Australian Broadcast Corporation, The 7:30 Report -- April 17
US ramps up Syria rhetoric
JEREMY THOMPSON: So what's happening?
Is the United States softening up the world for another invasion in the Middle East?
ALAN BEHM, FORMER DEFENCE OFFICIAL: I think what they're doing is warning Syria of the consequences of its possession of weapons of mass destruction and perhaps just testing the waters a bit to see how the international community might respond.
DR GLEN BARCLAY, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, ANU: We have to assume now that when the Americans start threatening anybody they're at least very seriously considering attacking them.
Secondly, the only reason for attacking Syria that makes sense would be to remove the only possible external threat to Israel.
[Opinion.]
Los Angelese TImes -- April 15
via Monkey Media Report
Next, Turn the Screws on Syria
By Yossi Klein Halevi
Syria arms and protects the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah. Until Sept. 11, Hezbollah held the world record in the number of Americans killed through terrorism. In two suicide bombings in the 1980s, Hezbollah murdered 260 American soldiers stationed in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. No terror organization maintains greater global reach than Hezbollah, whose cells and fund-raising network extend to six continents. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage recently noted that Hezbollah "may be the [terrorists'] A-team, while Al Qaeda may be actually the B-team."
The Daily Star -- April 18
Lahoud slams American threats against Syria
Other parties lash out at Washington
Elie Hourani
President Emile Lahoud condemned on Thursday the recent US threats against both Syria and Lebanon, “especially those that recently focused on Syria,” calling it “unfair to punish both the Lebanese and the Syrians for standing by Iraq and insisting on a peaceful solution.”
[Analysis and opinion.]
Washington Post -- April 18
Syrian Power Play
By Charles Krauthammer
Syria does not act out of sentimentality. Its harboring of high officials from Saddam Hussein's government is not an act of Baath Party brotherhood. It's a form of realpolitik, a postwar continuation of Syria's prewar opposition to America's aim to democratize Iraq.
[Report on a suspected missile facility.]
Christian Broadcast Network -- April 17
Syria’s Weapons of Terror Aimed at Israel
By Chris Mitchell
JERUSALEM — Secretary of State Colin Powell says he will travel to Damascus to meet Syria's President Bashar Assad. The meeting comes in the face of Syrian denials that it has weapons of mass destruction. But in the past six years, CBN News shown exclusive evidence that Syria does have such weapons, and the missiles to deliver them.
PakTribune -- April 18
Syria says no to arms inspection
CAIRO - Syria's foreign minister said on Thursday his country would not accept arms inspections, but would join forces with the world to rid the entire West Asia of weapons of mass destruction in line with its recent proposal to the United Nations.
[Retargeting?]
NewsMax -- April 17
Hezbollah: ‘Death to America’
Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in a speech before 150,000 supporters in a Beirut suburb said the U.S. will be made to suffer greatly as a result of its presence in Iraq, according to a report in the L.A. Times:
Daily KOS -- April 17
Syria countermoves, scores against US
The US continues its bizarre on-again, off-again war of words against Syria. Seriously, do a Google News search for "Syria" and "US", and get headlines like:
No Plans for war on Syria: US
US renews its attack on Syria
US 'would enter Syria for Saddam'
US will not cross Syrian border to hunt Saddam
So who the hell knows who will come out ahead what is obviously a power-struggle at the top of the Bush Administration.
[From this past Sunday.]
Meet the Press -- April 13
Russert and Rumsfeld, Russert and Moustapha
MR. RUSSERT: What happens if Syria doesn’t change their behavior?
SEC’Y RUMSFELD: Oh, that’s above my pay grade. Those are the kinds of things that countries and presidents decide. That’s broad national policy. I’m a participant, but I’m certainly not a decider.
-----
MR. RUSSERT: Do you believe there’s a potential of war between the United States and Syria?
AMB. MOUSTAPHA: No, I do not believe this. I’ll tell you why. Because we believe that the
American values and we believe in American fairness. We don’t think that extremist people will further push the agenda. It does not serve the long-term interests of the United States to be seen as attacking one country after another. This is not good. We believe in lots of good American values and we would love to see those American values applied in the West Bank and Gaza.
Boston Globe -- April 15
New Syrian diplomat has a voice, and he tries mightily to be heard
By John Donnelly
WASHINGTON -- Imad Moustapha arrived in Washington on Feb. 16, in the midst of one of the most powerful snowstorms in years. More than 2 feet fell in some areas.
Perhaps Mother Nature was giving him a heads up.
Moustapha was moving here to be the deputy ambassador at the Syrian Embassy, and his first task was to head up public diplomacy. Since he arrived, he has been caught in another storm, this one political, and it is swirling all around him.
''He seems Americanized; he's persuasive,'' said Edward S. Walker Jr., a career diplomat who was assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs in the early months of the Bush administration.
''The problem is,'' Walker said, ''he will have to show he can deliver. The Syrians have not taken seriously the threats from the administration until now. I don't think they are reading the situation correctly. Imad is concerned about this. If you look at where the neoconservatives are coming from, Syria is next, and I think he understands this.''
Slate -- April 16
Bashar Assad
The evil moron who's running Syria.
By Chris Suellentrop
In the real world, most evil men aren't geniuses. Instead, the real danger, more often than not, comes from evil morons.
United States Department of State -- May 2002 via NPS
Patterns of Global Terrorism
Hizballah (Party of God)
Known or suspected to have been involved in numerous anti-US terrorist attacks, including the suicide truck bombings of the US Embassy in Beirut April 1983 and US Marine barracks in Beirut in October 1983 and the US Embassy annex in Beirut in September 1984. Three members of Hizballah, ‘Imad Mughniyah, Hasan Izz-al-Din, and Ali Atwa, are on the FBI’s list of 22 Most Wanted Terrorists for the hijacking in 1985 of TWA Flight 847 during which a US Navy diver was murdered. Elements of the group were responsible for the kidnapping and detention of US and other Western hostages in Lebanon. The group also attacked the Israeli Embassy in Argentina in 1992 and is a suspect in the 1994 bombing of the Israeli cultural center in Buenos Aires. In fall 2000, it captured three Israeli soldiers in the Shabaa Farms and kidnapped an Israeli noncombatant whom it may have lured to Lebanon under false pretenses
Summary and Conjecture
This page is as much about educating myself as anything else. I read everything I post here, and at least as much that doesn't make the cut -- either because it's redundant or tangential to the narrow focus.
I've been trying to estimate the most likely course of events. Early this year I had residual hope that the confrontation with Iraq was an elaborate game of good cop/bad cop --that the impression of "I'm crazy, don't mess with me" given by the US would be strong enough to get Iraq to acquiesce to a very invasive inspection regime. But that wasn't the plan at all. I guess I understood that, but it didn't really sink in until great flocks of tomahawks descended on Iraq.
This time around I'm trying to read more deeply, to better understand the historical background, and to look into the personal beliefs and motivations of the players.
So here's my take today. Bush, ever the MBA, is looking over the costs of war. The first two invasions have been a political success, but the bills are starting to stack up. And perhaps someone on his staff has raised the issue of Arab nationalism. Perhaps he's noticed that his last few major allies (UK, Spain, Australia) and the Gulf Cooperation Council are much less enthusiastic about military intervention in Syria. His instincts tell him that he needs a few buddies who live outside the US. This set of factors has caused him to lean in the direction of using the State Dept. to tackle Syria.
I'm not sure how the road map dynamics will affect this. Tel Aviv and Washington are engaged in the some serious horse trading. A few billion dollars are at stake. US relations with Arab nations are at stake. And there are domestic political agendas in both Israel and the US. Oh, and the fate of the Palestinians, the pawns of an entire region.
I don't believe Israel will allow a partition of the West Bank and Gaza so long as it feels threatened on the Lebanese border. It's close to political suicide for Sharon to give up settlements in the territories. He won't do it without huge gains on security issues. The US doesn't want to do a full scale invasion of Syria to assure Israeli security, so the US and Israel must find other security solutions.
Perhaps "young" Assad is susceptible to coercion by a combination of offers of aid and threats of sanctions.
By stepping back to allow the US to deal with Lebanon, Syria could satisfy Israel's demand without suffering the wrath of the tomahawk. Could Assad do a Musharraf, and sell his radical friends down the river?
But if we are to go into Lebanon, we need pretext. The US public is pumped up about Syria, but Lebanon?
On the other hand, if Assad won't make a deal to let the US liberate Lebanon, neither Bush nor Sharon need peace to win re-election. Strong stances in a cold war stalemate would satisfy their base constituencies; it's their political opponents who are looking for peace.
[Sharon interview again.]
Toronto Star -- April 16
Israeli leader adds his voice to new Mideast war of words
Sharon demands Syria curb terror Calls for 'pressure,'
but not invasion
by OLIVIA WARD
JERUSALEM—As Washington turned up the volume against Syria, the voice of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon reverberated most loudly throughout the Middle East.
Syrian President Bashar Assad "is dangerous. His judgment is impaired," Sharon was quoted as saying in yesterday's Yedioth Aharonoth, a popular Hebrew newspaper.
"In the Iraq war, he proved he was incapable of drawing conclusions from very obvious facts. Anyone with eyes in his head would have known that Iraq was going to be on the losing side. But Assad thought the United States was going to fail," Sharon said.
The prime minister's interview was the latest of a number of government statements in the escalating battle of words between the neighbouring countries, which have technically been at war since 1948.
Israel has accused Syria of harbouring chemical weapons, aiding and abetting Saddam Hussein, and encouraging terrorism against the Jewish state. Syria, meanwhile, has made it clear that if a new conflict began, Israel would not escape unscathed.
In the Arab world, Washington's growing hostility toward Syria has been blamed on Israeli goading, and there is widespread belief that Sharon is hoping to use the presence of hundreds of thousands of American troops in the region as a handy means of settling scores with Israel's old enemy.
"Before even proving that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, (the Americans) are levelling accusations against Syria," Arab League spokesperson Hesham Youssef said yesterday.
"What is even more worrying is that Israel has entered the situation. This is like throwing oil on a fire, and makes the situation even more tense and precarious."
[Round of statements from Sharon, Mofaz, others from earlier today. The interviews were carried by Hebrew language papers. I haven't found English transcripts. My impression is that the Israeli government appears to be looking for a non-military solution to Syria. But they still want the US to do something about Syria, as part of the road map negotiation.]
Washington Post -- April 16
Sharon Asks U.S. to Pressure Syria on Militants
By Molly Moore
JERUSALEM -- Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has urged the United States to exert "very heavy" pressure on neighboring Syria to dislodge militant organizations supported by Damascus, but stopped short of advocating military action that analysts warn could put Israel in far more imminent danger from missile attacks than ever posed by Iraq.
Sharon and his defense minister, in parallel interviews published today in Israel's two most influential Hebrew daily newspapers, outlined "precise and specific" demands they suggested the United States impose on Syria.
Maariv
Yedioth Aharonoth
[More detail on Syria's proposal to the UN.]
UPI via Washington Times -- April 16
Syria backs anti-WMD resolution in U.N.
By William M. Reilly
UNITED NATIONS -- Syria on Wednesday introduced in the U.N. Security Council a draft resolution calling for a ban on weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, in the wake of the toppling of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime and U.S. accusations Damascus is producing chemical weapons.
It was seen by many diplomats as a move principally aimed at nuclear weapons believed held by Israel.
[State triumphed over Defense in Syria question?]
AP via Herald Sun (Australia) -- April 17
Powell to meet Syria's Assad
US Secretary of State Colin Powell said the US had launched a "very vigorous diplomatic exchange" with Syria and he intends to go to Damascus to meet with President Bashar Assad.
Powell again insisted that Syria expel officials of the fallen Iraqi government who crossed the border.
"Syria does not want to be a safe haven in the aftermath of Operation Iraqi Freedom," he said.
But rather than distancing itself from the Arab government that was Saddam Hussein's only close ally in the war, Powell said "lots of messages have been passed back and forth" between Washington and Damascus through US Ambassador Theodore Kattouf, and via Britain, France and Spain.
In fact, Powell told Associated Press Television News, he spoke earlier in the day to Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio, who will go to Damascus this weekend "about a message she might deliver".
Beyond that, Powell said, "I would expect to travel to Syria to have very candid and straightforward discussions with my foreign minister colleague (Farouk al-Shara) and with President Bashar Assad".
[More background stuff. I found this paper while looking up Feith biographies. In his position at the DoD, Feith is involved in setting policy towards Iraq and Syria.]
The Becket Fund for Religious Liberty
Reflections on Liberalism, Democracy and
Zionism
Douglas J. Feith
I began my talk by noting that liberalism emphasizes two
concepts: the autonomy or separate character of individuals,
on the one hand, and the equality or same treatment of
individuals, on the other. There is inherent in liberalism a
tension between these two concepts. Excessive emphasis on
equal treatment will not do justice to the separateness or
diversity of individuals. This helps explain the paradoxical
manner in which liberalism—with its emphasis on individual
th liberty—became a way station for the journey of some 19
century progressives toward socialism—which obliterated
individual liberty in the interest of uniformity .
For liberalism to thrive in practice, balancing of its two
elements is required. There is a lesson in this for those Israelis
who, intent on comparing their country with the United
States, contend that Israel like America should not be an
ethnic state—a Jewish state—but rather a “state of its
citizens.” Such Israelis advance a logic that would make all
states in the world “states of their citizens,” a classic, liberal
universalist view, but one that, as we have seen, ignores the
reality that human beings cherish their ethnic identities and,
given free choice, will often prefer
to live in an ethnic state in which their own people is the
majority.
If one gives due emphasis to the first element of
liberalism—autonomy or the right of human beings to enjoy
what distinguishes them from others—one should recognize
that there is a place in the world for non-ethnic nations and
there is a place for ethnic nations. Human freedom is best
served when people have a choice of the type of democratic
state in which they wish to reside.
Foreign Policy in Focus -- April 16
Calls to Attack Syria Come from a Familiar Choir of Hawks
By Jim Lobe
Many of the same people who led the campaign for war against Iraq signed a report released three years ago that called for using military force to disarm Syria of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and to end its military presence in Lebanon.
Among the signers are several senior members of the administration of President George W. Bush, including the chief Middle East aide on the National Security Council, Elliott Abrams; Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith; Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky; and senior consultants to both the State Department and the Pentagon on Iraq policy, Michael Rubin and David Wurmser. Also signing were Richard Perle, the powerful former chairman of the Defense Policy Board (DPB); Jeanne Kirkpatrick, former United Nations ambassador; Frank Gaffney, a former Perle aide who heads the Center for Defense Policy; Michael Ledeen, another close Perle collaborator at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI); and David Steinmann, chairman of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA).
The study, Ending Syria's Occupation of Lebanon: The U.S. Role, was co-authored by Daniel Pipes, who has just been nominated by Bush to a post at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), and Ziad Abdelnour, who heads a group founded by him called the United States Committee for a Free Lebanon (USCFL). The study was released by Pipes' group, the Middle East Forum.
[Slow news day on Syrian front. More analysis, background, etc. This is a refutation of several of the Bush administration charges against Syria.]
Foreign Policy in Focus
Talking Points on Recent Concerns Raised by Bush Administration Officials Regarding Syria
By Stephen Zunes
There is no evidence that Iraq has moved any weapons of mass destruction or related technology and raw materials into Syria. With open deserts, mostly cloudless days, and detailed surveillance by satellites and aircraft, the movement of such material would likely have been detected. The United Nations Monitoring and Verification Commission (UNMOVIC), empowered by the United Nations Security Council to verify the destruction of Iraq's WMD programs, disputes Bush administration claims that such proscribed materials have made their way out of the country.
[Analysis, opinion.]
New York Times -- April 15
Roto-Rooter
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
But, as I said, we're not going to invade Syria to change Syria. So what to do? The Middle East expert Stephen Cohen offers a useful concept. He calls it "aggressive engagement — something between outright military engagement and useless constructive engagement."
[Analysis, with commentary on Mofaz's
kibitzing.]
Talking Points -- April 15
I doubt very much that we're about to move militarily against Syria. This strikes me as a brush-back pitch.
The Times (UK) -- April 16
America would enter Syria to snatch Saddam
From Glen Owen at Central Command in Qatar
“We respect international law,” he said. “But if it was the ace of spades, it would be different.”
[Softer tone on Syria from Rumsfeld yesterday. Perhaps Rumsfeld has decided to let State run foreign policy?]
Defense Link -- April 15
Rumsfeld/Meyer Briefing
Q: -- saying, in effect, to Syria to cease and desist aiding and abetting those of the Saddam regime and also in building or harboring weapons of mass destruction.
The bottom-line question is, specifically -- underline the word "specifically" -- how does the Bush administration intend to make that happen? How can you prevent Syria from doing these things?
SEC. RUMSFELD: I don't have anything else to add on that. The President's spoken on it. Secretary Powell has spoken on it. I'll leave that to them.
[Later in briefing.]
Q: But given -- if I could follow up, but given Syria's support for terrorism, is there a concern that Iraqis could in fact -- former regime leaders could use Syria as a haven from which to plot and carry out terrorist attacks?
SEC. RUMSFELD: The -- I don't have anything else to say about Syria. The president's been discussing it. Secretary Powell's been discussing it. I've discussed it. And I don't know what one can add. Obviously, the people in Iraq who ran that government are on our list. And we'd like to have them. And we'll get a lot of them. We may even get most of them over time. And life will go on.
Reuters -- April 16
Egypt says Israel behind U.S. pressure on Syria
CAIRO - A senior adviser to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak accused Israel on Wednesday of instigating a campaign of U.S. threats against Syria to force Damascus to make political concessions to the Jewish state.
Osama el-Baz also urged Israel, in remarks carried by the official Middle East News Agency (MENA), to prepare to withdraw from occupied Arab lands.
"Concerning threats to Syria, Baz said the threats were aimed at pressuring Syria and twisting its arm to go along with certain proposals..., explaining that Israel was the instigator," MENA said.
Baz urged Israel not to waste the chance for "a true co-existence with the Arabs", adding that Israel must be ready to withdraw completely from the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war.
[The al Queda/Syria story broken by Time/Europe has some legs.]
LA Times via San Francisco Chronicle -- April 16
Italian police link Syria to al Qaeda extremists
Nation served as way station for terror recruits, probe finds
by Sebastian Rotella
Milan -- Syria has functioned as a hub for an al Qaeda network that moved Islamic extremists and funds from Italy to northeastern Iraq, where the recruits fought alongside the recently defeated Ansar al-Islam terrorist group,
according to an Italian investigation.
Herald Sun (Australia) -- April 17
US renews its attack on Syria
By PHILLIP COOREY in New York
Arab diplomats convened a meeting at the United Nations and accused the US of backing Israel, which has nuclear weapons.
The diplomats said they would ask the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution declaring the Middle East a "zone free of weapons of mass destruction".
"The only party in the region with weapons of mass destruction is Israel," said Syrian envoy Fayssal Mekdad after the meeting.
Reuters -- April 16
Syria Says Willing to Work with U.S. to Help Iraqis
By Inal Ersan
DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syria said on Wednesday it was willing to cooperate with the United States in the interest of Iraqis but would not close the offices of militant Palestinian groups, one of Washington's long-standing demands.
"Syria will always cooperate in things that serve the Iraqi people's interests," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Buthaina Shaaban said.
Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shara said his government was willing to sign a treaty making the entire Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction.
[Discussion of arms control in general, and how that applies to Syria.]
Council of Foreign Relations, via New York Times -- April 15
Q&A: After Iraq, Pressure on Syria?
In an article you wrote for Arms Control Today, you express concern that the administration is focusing more on the countries that possess weapons of mass destruction than on the weapons themselves. Can you expound on that a bit?
The administration has correctly identified a number of key problems with the international non-proliferation regime, including the difficulty of enforcing many of these treaties. The administration is right; for far too long, we've let violators get away with these violations, or allowed the treaties to mask clandestine programs that countries were conducting.
But I fear that [administration officials] have lurched too far in the other direction, weakening the international rule of law in the process, and perhaps gone so far as to now downgrade the role of the United Nations in this process. By focusing on what they think are the key proliferation violators--Iran, Iraq, and North Korea--[U.S. officials] risk ignoring the proliferation problems that are created by other countries that have large stockpiles of nuclear, chemical, or in some case biological weapons--including Pakistan, India, and Israel--and the prominent role that nuclear weapons play in our own national security strategy.
This creates a double standard in the world, where some countries are allowed to have these weapons, while others are not. It's a strategy of picking and choosing good guys and bad guys, which in my view will ultimately fail, in part because the good guys and bad guys keep changing. In one decade we may be allowing or even encouraging a country to have these weapons and in another decade we may find that that country is now a threat to our own security. Remember, Iraq and Iran used to be good guys. We helped both of those countries develop their deadly arsenals. Pakistan is a good guy now. That country is deeply troubled, and is in a profoundly unstable area of the world. There's no guarantee of where Pakistan is going in the future.
The Age (Australia) -- April 16
Bush bomb plotter seen in Syria
A suspected high-ranking operative of the Iraqi intelligence service who is believed to have played a key role in a 1993 plot to assassinate [former] US president George [H.W.] Bush has been spotted in Syria.
Faruq Hijazi, whose last official post was Saddam Hussein's ambassador to Tunis, flew to Damascus on a commercial jet in an apparent attempt to seek refuge in the country following the toppling of the Iraqi government by US forces, said a US official, who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity.
[Assessment of Syria's military strength's and weaknesses.]
Slate -- April 15
Assad's Situation
Syria's military machine may be hollow—but it isn't harmless.
By Fred Kaplan
After the Israelis stripped bare the myth of Syrian defenses in 1982, Hafez Assad abandoned his goal of achieving "strategic parity" with Israel and instead aimed for "strategic deterrence." To that end, he built up huge stockpiles of biological and especially chemical weapons—including an arsenal of missiles with sufficient range to reach Israeli cities, as well as bombs and artillery shells to kill enemy troops on the battlefield.
Australian Broadcast Corporation -- April 15
Interview with Alexander Downer, Foreign Minister of Australia
KERRY O'BRIEN: But in this new pre-emptive age, why isn't war at the end of the chain, if Syria doesn't respond to America's warnings in the way America wants it to?
ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, never be too rapid in making foreign policy by analogy, as I often say that to people.
Look, in this particular case, there are Security Council resolutions.
There hasn't been 12 years of endeavours to get Syria to disarm from chemical and biological weapons.
The circumstances are not directly analogous with Iraq.
And that conclusion shouldn't be drawn.
But that's not to say that the Americans aren't right to have concerns about Syria.
New York Times -- April 14
Syria Harbors Iraqis and Grants Transit to Hezbollah, U.S. Asserts
By DON VAN NATTA Jr. and DOUGLAS JEHL
WASHINGTON — Syria is allowing some members of Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim militant group based in Lebanon, to travel from Syrian-controlled southern Lebanon to Iraq, current and former United States intelligence officials said today.
[More on Hezbollah.]
Daily Star -- April 15
Hizbullah warns of fallout from US regional plans
Maurice Kaldawi
A senior Hizbullah official warned Monday that fallout from the US-led war in Iraq may soon affect Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran and the region.
Sheikh Naim Qassem, deputy secretary-general of Hizbullah, was speaking to reporters after visiting Aram I Keshishian, Armenian Orthodox Catholicos of the House of Celicia, at his seat in Antelias.
Qassem said the visit was part
of a “big tour” by Hizbullah officials involving religious and political leaders and designed to discuss developments concerning Lebanon in particular.
“Time has proved that the American steps in Iraq are the beginning of steps covering the whole region and providing an appropriate cover for Israeli designs,” Qassem said.
“(Israeli Prime Minister) Ariel Sharon is talking about the favorable chances he is expecting from the aggression on Iraq. In addition, there are accusations against Syria that it possesses weapons of mass destruction. This confirms that the Iraqi step is an American crossing over to other steps covering Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iran and the whole region,” he said.
He added that what happened in Iraq “does not mean it can happen again in other spots, because the circumstances are different and so are the governments.”
Accordingly, we cannot prevent a possible danger but we can prevent events which others think of realizing, he said.
Replying to a question about the recent “campaign against Damascus,” Qassem said: “We and Syria are in the same trench and will remain united in confronting challenges.”
“We consider this American campaign to be aimed to weaken the Syrian and Lebanese position and an attempt to break the relationship between the two countries,” he added.
[Discussion of Hezbollah defiance. Review of Mofaz's plan to present Israel's demands to Syria via US.]
The Daily Star
Hizbullah: ‘Whatever happens, we are ready’
by Nicholas Blanford
The Hizbullah fighter, one of three manning an observation post on Sheikh Abbad Hill, ignored the taunts of “Terrorist! Terrorist!” from an unseen Israeli soldier in the giant concrete compound on the other side of the border fence, and simply said: “Whatever happens, we are ready.”
[More detail on Hezbollah reaction than carried in BBC story posted below.]
Al Bawaba -- April 15
Hizbullah dismisses US threats against Syria
Hizbullah believes US pressure on Syria and Iran will not be translated into military action and is only a tool for pressuring those opposed to US designs in the region.
The political adviser to Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Hajj Hussein Khalil, told The Daily Star in an interview, published on Tuesday, that the US pressure was “nothing new.”
[Only a few questions on Syria in today's White House briefing. Quoted below is perhaps the most pointed exchange. This is in sharp contrast to the April 14th briefing which was peppered with questions about Syria. I find it surprising that their were no references to today's Guardian article, which I read late last night.]
White House Briefing -- April 15
www.whitehouse.gov/news/briefings/
Q Why is the focus on Syria?
MR. FLEISCHER: Well, the focus is on Syria is because Syria is the nation that's harboring Iraqis.
Q Do you have proof of that?
MR. FLEISCHER: Well, certainly, we would not have said it, Secretary Powell would not have said it, the President wouldn't have said it.
Q Why don't you present the proof, then?
MR. FLEISCHER: Well, as always, Helen, this is an old argument. We have information that comes into our hands for a variety of means. We prefer to keep getting that information. We feel confident --
Q Don't think it will enhance your credibility if you showed us?
MR. FLEISCHER: I think our credibility is rather strong.
[Concise review of official and press responses.]
Utusan Express (Malaysia) -- April 15
World leaders, press alarmed as US turns sights to Syria
PARIS - World leaders and press reacted with a mixture of caution and dismay on Tuesday to the United States' escalating threats to Syria, which it accuses of harbouring Iraqi leaders and chemical weapons.
[Broadly ranging article on Syria, Iraq, Chalabi, Abbas. Covers Rumsfeld, Powell and Syrian comments which were covered in posts below. Gulf Cooperation Council weighs in.]
Washington Post -- April 15
U.S. Keeps Diplomatic Pressure on Syria
By Thomas W. Lippman
U.S. military officials said, Special Forces have stepped up their activities along Iraq's border with Syria, trying to cut off the possible escape of Iraqi officials or the transport of banned weapons.
The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, rejected U.S. accusations that Syria was developing chemical weapons and harboring Iraqi officials and urged the United States to get out of Iraq as quickly as possible.
"We think the threat to Syria should stop. We don't think Syria wants a war or to escalate any situation," Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad Bin Jasim Thani told reporters after an emergency meeting of foreign ministers of the six Gulf states in the Saudi capital. "We reject any infringement of Syria's security. . . . We are watching this with great care and if there is any problem to be solved it is to be solved by direct negotiations by both sides."
Ha'aretz -- April 16
Dozens of senior Iraqis flee to Syria
By Ze'ev Schiff
Dozens, and perhaps hundreds, of Iraqi officials escaped to Syria, according to fresh assessments by intelligence organizations including the U.S., British and Israeli services, which were surprised by the large numbers involved after initial estimates that only a few dozen made their way to Syria during or prior to the war.
Arabic News -- April 15
Mubarak discusses with Bush the Iraqi issue, threats on Syria
Well- informed diplomatic sources in Cairo said that the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, is seeking to contain the statements and threats launched by American officials, in which they accused Syria of supporting terrorism, seeking to own chemical weapons and harboring former officials in the regime of the toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
[Also covered in Mubarak-Bush conversation were the Israel Palestine roadmap and the situation in Iraq.]
[Tuesday's comments from Sharon. Support for Syria from Iran and Spain.]
Al Jazeera -- April 15
Syria dominates Middle East agenda
Syria continued to dominate the world’s agenda on Tuesday amid a flurry of statements and diplomatic manoeuvrings.
Israel’s Prime Minister Ariel Sharon weighed into the war of words demanding that greater pressure be brought upon the recalcitrant” country by the US to rid it of Palestinian "terrorists" while Iran threatened that any US-military action against Syria would be construed as an attack against Iran.
Through the escalating wrangle, Syria has struck a consistent note of indignation alleging that hardline “Zionists” had infiltrated the corridors of power in Washington and taken over its Middle East policy.
Israel’s Prime Minister was the harshest on Syria on the day, accusing its president, Bashar al-Asad of being a “dangerous" man, "whose judgment was impaired.”
[Comments from several Lebanese officials.]
The Daily Star -- April 15
Lebanese leaders stand by Syria against US
Speaker calls on america to respect rights of other countries
by Khalil Fleihan
Lebanese leaders are standing by Syria against charges from US officials that Damascus has been supporting the regime of Saddam Hussein and possesses weapons of mass destruction.
Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday called for a halt to such statements from officials in the US administration.
[More on the pipeline.]
UPI -- April 15
Iraq, Syria had big plans for oil
By Hil Anderson
LOS ANGELES -- The coalition's shutdown of a crude pipeline linking northern Iraq with the Syrian port of Banias for now has pulled the plug on the ties that Damascus had forged with Saddam Hussein's regime in the energy sector.
[Rumsfeld confirms pipeline story. Review of recent comments from the US, Syria, Israel, Spain, UK, Hezbollah, UN.]
BBC -- April 15
US 'blocks' Syria pipeline
Ties between the US and Syria have long been strained
The US says it has blocked a pipeline used to pump Iraqi oil to Syria, in volume that allegedly violated UN sanctions.
There were fresh rumours last week that Syria had been importing large amounts of Iraqi oil in contravention of sanctions on Iraq, when Syrian crude oil deliveries fell sharply after a pipeline was thought to have been bombed.
The disclosure can only add to increasingly strained relations between the US and Syria, which on Tuesday rebuffed recent US allegations that it is developing chemical weapons.
Syria said such claims were designed to further the interests of Israel.
Arab countries, Russia and the European Union have also condemned the US for making threats against Syria over the war in Iraq.
But on Tuesday, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer kept up the pressure, saying "the focus is on Syria because Syria is the nation that is harbouring Iraqis" - a reference to the US claim that some of Saddam Hussein's allies may have fled to the country.
[A review of recent US and Israeli rhetoric directed towards Syria.]
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty -- April 15
U.S./Syria: What's Behind Washington's War Of Words?
By Jeffrey Donovan
"The president, the vice president, the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, the national security adviser and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff have all issued threats and warnings to Syria over the last week. This is unheard-of with respect to U.S.-Syrian relations. Never before have those high-level officials made those kinds of statements."
Other Syria Watching Bloggers
Sam Rosenfeld
Calpundit
[Another article on Powell's Tuesday comments. Rice's and Annan's comments from Monday are quoted below.]
AP via The Free Lance-Star, Fredericksburg, VA -- April 15
Powell Tones Down Rhetoric Toward Syria
By BARRY SCHWEID
"It is time to sign on to a different kind of Middle East," national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said Monday as Syria took another public pasting from the administration.
Rice, in a parallel thrust at Damascus, said Syria's support for terrorism and "harboring the remnants of the Iraqi regime" were unacceptable. But she indicated the administration was not contemplating military action.
In New York, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said he was "concerned that recent statements directed at Syria should not contribute to a wider destabilization in a region already affected heavily by the war in Iraq."
[New comments from Powell today. "Imposing democratic values" is an interesting oxymoron.]
Sky News -- April 15
POWELL: CONCERNS
Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, has said the US has no war plan to attack either Syria or Iran.
"We have concerns about Syria," he said. "We have let Syria know of our concerns. We also have concerns about some of the policies of Iran.
"We have made the Iranians fully aware of our concerns," Mr Powell said.
"But there is no list, there is no war plan right now to go attack someone else either for the purpose of overthrowing their leadership or for the purpose of imposing democratic values," Powell said.
[This Guardian exclusive is causing a buzz today.]
The Guardian -- April 15
Bush vetoes Syria war plan
Julian Borger in Washington, Michael White, Ewen MacAskill in Kuwait City and Nicholas Watt
The White House has privately ruled out suggestions that the US should go to war against Syria following its military success in Iraq, and has blocked preliminary planning for such a campaign in the Pentagon, the Guardian learned yesterday.
In the past few weeks, the US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, ordered contingency plans for a war on Syria to be reviewed following the fall of Baghdad.
Meanwhile, his undersecretary for policy, Doug Feith, and William Luti, the head of the Pentagon's office of special plans, were asked to put together a briefing paper on the case for war against Syria, outlining its role in supplying weapons to Saddam Hussein, its links with Middle East terrorist groups and its allegedly advanced chemical weapons programme. Mr Feith and Mr Luti were both instrumental in persuading the White House to go to war in Iraq.
Mr Feith and other conservatives now playing important roles in the Bush administration, advised the Israeli government in 1996 that it could "shape its strategic environment... by weakening, containing and even rolling back Syria".
However, President George Bush, who faces re-election next year with two perilous nation-building projects, in Afghanistan and Iraq, on his hands, is said to have cut off discussion among his advisers about the possibility of taking the "war on terror" to Syria.
[Persistent questioning and extensive comments by Fleischer on Syria in today's briefing. The quotation below is just a small sampling. Repeated statements by Fleischer about WMD, terrorists and Iraqi leaders in Syria. The Golan Heights is not part of Israel/Palestine roadmap.]
White House Press Briefing -- April 14
whitehouse.gov/news/briefings/
Q Have you gotten any feedback yet from Syria?
MR. FLEISCHER: Well, I think that Syria has received the message. Keep in mind, the United States does have diplomatic relations with Syria. We have an ambassador in Damascus. Syria has received the message not only from the ambassador, but from other officials in the government.
And I think it's important for Syria to recognize that not only is it important for -- the wise way to conduct diplomacy, but also as a way of sending a message to the people of a newly-liberated Iraq, the people of Kuwait, others in the region who do not want to see Syria take in or harbor those who have been engaged in decades-long practice of tyranny, of brutality and of persecution against the Iraqi people. Why would Syria want to harbor those people? It's an important question, and we look forward to Syria's response to it.
Q In recent days, many announcements by senior officials about Syria's weapons of mass destruction have led people in other parts of the world to believe that Syria is probably next on the United States target list. And I'm wondering if you want to disabuse us of that notion?
MR. FLEISCHER: Thank you. Let me make two points. What's next on the United States target list is Iraq. What is next is exactly what we have described, which is completing the military mission in Iraq, because there still are dangerous places and there still is risk of pockets of fighting and resistance. What's next is the reconstruction of Iraq, working with Iraqis, working with the international community, working with the coalition to rebuild Iraq. If you want to know in the President's mind what is next, that is what is next.
In terms of Syria and chemical weapons, indeed, the President was asked a direct question yesterday: does Syria have weapons of mass destruction? And, indeed, as the President's habit, he answered the direct question. Syria does have chemical weapons according to a report that was just released by the CIA to the Congress. It's a public document and an authoritative one. I brought it to your attention earlier today.
So when the President is asked a direct question, he answers it. [ed. note: I'm biting my tongue here.]
[More Syrian reaction. Reaction from Egypt, Germany and Turkey.]
Dar Al-Hayat -- April 14
Syria Denies U.S. Accusations
Syria on Monday rejected U.S. accusations that it had chemical weapons and was sheltering former Iraqi leaders.
The increased U.S. pressure on Syria now that the Iraqi regime is overthrown prompted a warning from Europe. "We need to concentrate on winning the peace, and not on getting into a new confrontation," German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said as he arrived at an EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg.
It also prompted Syria to seek support from other countries. Syrian President Bashar Assad met with a junior British envoy Monday on the future of the region post-Saddam Hussein, as well as Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir. He spoke to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak by phone Sunday night.
"We will discuss with our brothers in Syria and other Arab countries how can we avoid the dangers ahead," Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said in Cairo following talks Monday between Mubarak and visiting King Abdullah II of Jordan.
[Reaction to Sunday's US comments on Syria.]
Radio Free Europe -- April 14
U.S.: Washington Piles Pressure On Syria, Sparking French, Arab Reaction
By Jeffrey Donovan
Their remarks drew a quick reply from France, whose foreign minister is on a swing through the Middle East. Dominique de Villepin said that now is not the time to be pressuring Syria and that the world community should focus instead on rebuilding Iraq and reviving Middle East peace efforts.
Asked about Villepin's remarks, Rumsfeld bristled, accusing Paris of ignoring reality and living a lie. He added: "The comment that you cited suggests that the truth doesn't have any value, and the truth does have value. And the fact of the matter is that Syria has been unhelpful, and pretending that that is not the case is to deny the truth, and I don't think you can live a lie."
France's call was joined by Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mussa, who told reporters in Cairo that U.S. threats against Syria would only further inflame the situation in the Middle East.
[More from Rumsfeld. Review of Fleischer's comments]
Al Bawaba -- April 14
US directs additional hostile rhetoric at Syria: Rumsfeld speaks about chemical arms tests
US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on Monday accused Syria of carrying out tests involving chemical weapons over the past 12 to 15 months and allowing some Iraqis to flee into Syrian territory.
Further increasing U.S. pressure on Iraq's neighbor, Rumsfeld said the United States has "intelligence that indicates that some Iraqi people have been allowed into Syria, in some cases to stay and some cases to transit."
"I would say that we have seen chemical weapons tests in Syria over the past 12, 15 months," he said. "We have intelligence that shows that Syria has allowed Syrians and others to come across the border into Iraq, people armed and people carrying leaflets indicating that they'll be rewarded if they kill Americans and members of the coalition."
Rumsfeld made his comments during a news briefing outside the Pentagon after meeting with visiting Kuwaiti Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammad al-Salem al-Sabah.
Financial Times -- April 14
Israel demands US take action against Syria
By Sharmila Devi in Jerusalem
"We have a long list of issues that we are thinking of demanding of the Syrians and it is proper that it should be done through the Americans," Shaul Mofaz, Israeli defence minister, told the Maariv daily.
"It starts from removing the Hizbollah threat from southern Lebanon."
He also called for "an end to Iranian aid to Hizbollah through Syrian ports".
[More reactions to US statements.]
BBC -- April 14
US warns of Syria sanctions
The United States has stepped up its pressure on Syria, warning of possible sanctions against Damascus over its suspected chemical weapons programme and alleged help for fugitive Iraqi officials.
A Syrian foreign ministry spokeswoman, Bouthana Shaaban, insisted that "the only country in the region which has chemical, biological and nuclear weapons is Israel".
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair told Parliament he had received an assurance from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that no fleeing Iraqi officials would be allowed into Syria.
"He assured me that they would interdict anybody who's crossing over the border from Iraq into Syria," he said. "I believe they are doing that."
Russia has urged Washington to tone down its criticism of Syria.
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said :"Harsh statements being made in Washington may considerably complicate the situation in the Middle East".
Department of State -- April 14
WHITE HOUSE WARNS "SYRIA NEEDS TO COOPERATE"
The White House called Syria a "rogue nation" and a
"terrorist state," and White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer
reiterated President Bush's warning that "Syria needs to cooperate."
[New statements on Syria by Fleischer and Powell.]
CNN -- April 14
White House steps up criticism of Syria
From Dana Bash
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Rejecting Syria's denial that it harbors senior Iraqi leaders, the Bush administration on Monday hinted at possible sanctions against Syria as it raised anew accusations that Damascus is engaged in chemical weapons programs.
Secretary of State Colin Powell alluded to "possible measures of a diplomatic, economic or other nature" against Syria.
At the White House, Press Secretary Ari Fleischer declined to say what actions, if any, the United States might take against Syria if it does not "cooperate," but he refused to rule anything out.
"There are acceptable standards of behavior that the world and certainly the free Iraqi people hope will be followed by its neighbors including Syria and part of that is not to harbor Iraqi leaders ...Syria needs to cooperate and not harbor Iraqi leaders," Fleischer said.
Fleischer quoted from a 2002 public CIA report that Syria "already held nerve gas... but is trying to develop more toxic and persistent nerve agents."
"Why should they have chemical weapons?" asked Fleischer, noting that they are not signatories to the Chemical Weapons Treaty that bans them.
Reuters -- April 14
Britain's Straw Says Syria Cooperated with Saddam
KUWAIT - British Foreign Minister Jack Straw said on Monday there was evidence that Syria cooperated with Saddam Hussein's toppled administration in recent months and urged Damascus to change its attitude now that he was gone.
Straw said on Monday Syria was not "next on the list" for military action, but said there was evidence that Syria cooperated with Saddam's toppled administration. He urged Damascus to change its attitude now Saddam was gone.
[British recap of Ha'aretz interview, plus settler reaction.]
The Guardian via Dratfink -- April 14
Sharon softens stance on Palestine
by Conal Urquhart in Jerusalem and Nicholas Watt
Ariel Sharon, the Israeli prime minister, gave his strongest indication yesterday that he expected to see a Palestinian state and was willing to evacuate controversial settlements to achieve peace.
But Mr Sharon was given a taste of the dangers of taking a moderate stance. Ezra Rosenfeld, a spokesman for the Yesha Council, the settlers' pressure group, described his remarks as "pathetic".
"He has completely divorced himself from the history of the Jewish people. If you do not have the right to live in Shiloh and Beit El, you don't have the right to live in Tel Aviv. The UN declaration in 1948 is not the justification of the state of Israel, it is Jewish history."
National Post (Canada) via AEI --- April 5
A Peaceful Approach to Regime Change
By David Frum
So--what's next? The question may seem premature: Allied troops have barely begun, let alone won, the battle for Baghdad. Yet already you hear anti-war critics demanding to know who will replace Iraq in the Bush administration's gunsights. These critics fear that the administration is determined to launch an endless sequence of wars to reshape the whole Middle East.
But while reshaping the region is very much on the administration's mind, more wars in the region are not. Instead, the administration's long-range thinkers are planning three different approaches borrowed from the recent past to the area's three most troublesome states--and all three approaches are non-military.
For Iran, the approach might be compared to the approach the United States and other democratic states took to Poland in the 1980s. ....
For Syria, think Libya in the 1980s ...
As for Saudi Arabia, it shares more than a set of initials with South Africa. ...
Today's summary and conjecture. The war of words is heating up. After letting lower level officials till the ground, Bush is speaking up on Syria. Lists of current and past offenses by Syria are circulating in the US media. Increasing US pressure on Israel to make concessions to Palestine is likely to increase Israeli pressure on the US to do something about Syria. US is likely to continue to ratchet up pressure, but has little international backing for this rhetoric. Assad may be forced to allow US strikes against anti-Israeli organizations in Syria and Lebanon to prevent full-scale invasion.
[Report on Israeli-Syrian War of Words]
Ha'aretz -- April 14
Mofaz: Syria must lift Hezbollah threat to Israel
By Daniel Sobelman and Nathan Guttman, Haaretz Correspondents and Agencies
Syria must lift the threat of Hezbollah attacks against Israel and expel the leaders of terrorist organizations from Damascus, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz was quoted as saying Monday, amid fast-rising tensions between Syria and the United States.
"We must monitor what it happening there. The Americans have taken out a 'yellow card' on them, and were right to do so," he said in remarks broadcast on Army Radio, referring to a soccer referee's warning card for players who have broken the rules of the game, and, if infractions continue, may be expelled.
Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk a-Shara said Sunday that if the United States decides to attack Syria, Israel will also be harmed as a result. Shara also rejected claims that Syria was providing shelter to senior Iraqi leaders, and said that the Americans "know well that these accusations have no basis."
Former prime minister and foreign minister Shimon Peres, currently in the United States, said Washington no longer tolerate "two faced policies" regarding terrorism. "A nation can either fight terror or aid terror. They will not allow a nation to pretend it is fighting terror, while it actually aids it."
Peres said that some 10 headquarters of terrorist organizations in Damascus. He added that Washington's approach to Syria was likely to be "uncompromising," but "I don't think that the next step will be use of military force. I think that what America will try to do is to truly forge a coalition to tell Syria to decide where it's really headed."
whitehouse.gov -- April 13
Remarks by Mr. Bush upon Arrival from Camp David
Q Could they face military action if they don't cooperate?
BUSH: They just need to cooperate.
[Analysis of Syria-US relations from Israel.]
Ha'aretz -- April 14
Bashar Assad's nightmare is coming true
By Daniel Sobelman
The editors of the official Syrian government newspapers have in recent days lowered the rank of U.S. administration officials to one reserved until now only for their Israeli counterparts: Nazi war criminals.
"The UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly must transfer the leaders of the American administration to the International Criminal Court, so they can be judged as war criminals, equal in rank to the Nazi war criminals," said one of the editorials of the newspaper Tishrin two days ago.
[Analysis of international reaction to US neocon policies.]
International Herald Tribune -- April 14
Call it imperialism or unilateralism, America worries the world
by Richard Bernstein, The New York Times
The speed of the Iraqi victory is being seen as likely to bolster the prestige and influence of those in Washington who, Europeans believe, would now like to embark on further military conquests, in Syria, Iran or possibly North Korea. "Traditionally the U.S. has emphasized its great convincing and coercive power on other states," Parmentier said. "Its foreign policy managed to convince other heads of state that what they were doing was in their national interest, and this was American's great strength.
"Today, the U.S. is affirming a much more blunt and brutal stance," Parmentier added. "Its vision for foreign affairs has somewhat retrograded to a more national or even nationalistic definition, in the most limited sense of the term, as it was understood in the 19th century."
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Zee News (India) -- April 14
New evidence extremist groups use Syria as base: Time
London: A key operative of an extremist group suspected of links to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network operated out of Syria until last month, the European edition of the US news weekly time reports in its issue appearing today.
"Beginning last January and continuing through the first week of the war, mullah Abderrazzak -- a Tunisian member of the Ansar al-Islam terrorist group -- made satellite telephone calls from Syria to Milan-based Islamic terrorists, according to court papers filed in Milan," the weekly said in a statement.
Abderrazzak wanted the terrorists to leave Europe and join the fight against US and British troops in Iraq, an Italian anti-terror investigator told time.
His location does not prove the Syrian government knowingly harbored him, but the investigator told time "activity like this can't happen without (Syria's) security service knowing."
[Coverage of Bush's comments and Syrian response. With added depth on Syrian response. Mention of Time article about alleged al-Queda link with Syria.]
Al Jazeera -- April 14
Washington ups the ante against Syria
by Amal Hamdan
In an escalating confrontation of words, the United States accused Syria Sunday of possessing chemical weapons, charged its nationals had engaged US troops in combat in Baghdad, provided a safe haven for fleeing Iraqi officials.
In today's instalment, US President George W. Bush stopped short of threatening force against Damascus. Asked if Syria could face military action Bush replied, “They just need to cooperate.”
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak spoke to his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al-Assad, hours after Bush reiterated US allegations. Egypt’s official MENA news agency reported the two leaders discussed “developments in the Iraqi question and the global situation in the Middle East,” without giving further details.
To add to the pressure, the latest European edition of Time magazine has reported that a key Al-Qaeda operative was allowed to operate out of Syria with the full knowledge of the country's security services.
"Beginning last January and continuing through the first week of the war, Mullah Abderrazzak -- a Tunisian member of the Ansar Al Islam terrorist group -- made satellite telephone calls from Syria to Milan-based Islamic terrorists, according to court papers filed in Milan", said the US news weekly.
Abderrazzak wanted the "terrorists" to leave Europe and join the fight against US and British troops in Iraq, an Italian anti-terrorist invesitgator told Time.
[An analysis of how Israeli interests influence US policy.]
Asia Times -- April 12
A roadmap for Israel, with a detour via Damascus
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - Will it be the roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace or the road to Damascus that will next grab the attention of US President George W Bush's administration in the wake of its convincing conquest of Iraq?
While senior officials, including Bush himself as recently as Monday after meeting in Belfast with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, have insisted that getting an Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track will be the top regional priority after the Iraq war, speculation that administration hawks have their eyes set on Syria suggests a possible detour.
"They are saying, 'Why should we immediately get all involved in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, especially with the Europeans and the UN, before the Syrians, Hezbollah [in Lebanon], and Iran have time to fully absorb the real meaning of our victory'?" said one former senior official. "It's part of their 'shock and awe' strategy, only it's directed beyond Iraq."
The hawks also have strong support in Congress, where the so-called Israel lobby, in the form of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, has been flexing its muscles over the past several weeks.
It is lining up support from both the Republican and Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives to break with the road map's plan for Israelis and Palestinians to take parallel steps, and instead require the Palestinians to enforce a total halt on attacks on Israelis and implement more far-reaching political and economic reforms before Israel is obliged to begin withdrawing its forces or even dismantling illegal settlements. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay has even asked Bush to repudiate the quartet altogether.
While Bush cannot afford to go that far, DeLay's words were clearly a shot across the bow by a strong party leader who sees the administration's staunch support for Sharon to date as a major opportunity to woo Jewish votes and political organizations and funding from the Democrats in 2004, an opportunity that is also recognized by Bush's own political guru, Karl Rove.
[Comments by Bush, Rumsfeld, Powell and Moustapha.]
BBC -- April 13
Bush tells Syria to 'co-operate'
'The Syrian government needs to co-operate'
US President George W Bush has warned Syria against harbouring fugitives from Saddam Hussein's ousted regime in Iraq.
America, he said, expected Iraq's western neighbour to "co-operate" with the US-led coalition and he added that he believed Syria possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD)- the charge against Iraq which sparked the war there.
"We believe there are chemical weapons in Syria," the president said, speaking to press on the White House lawn.
[Syrian reaction to Bush's comments about Syria.]
Gulf Daily News via
Syria Daily
-- April 14
Arms checks can prove US wrong says Syria
Syria last night said it was willing to accept international inspections to allay US fears that it has weapons of mass destruction and urged Washington to help rid the entire Middle East - including Israel - of such arms.
"Go everywhere, but please to every country in this Middle East," said senior Syrian envoy in Washington Imad Moustapha as the US accused Damascus of possessing chemical weapons, charged that its nationals had engaged US troops in combat in Baghdad and warned it against allowing senior Iraqi leaders to escape through its territory.
Start
Before setting up this page, the war of words was tracked on my main page.
Second set of articles
First set of articles