War (of Words) with Syria
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Sunday, Apr 20, 2003
[Profile of Bashar al-Assad.]
Behind Warnings to Damascus: Reassessment of Younger Assad
Forward (New York) -- April 18
By MARC PERELMAN
A sudden flurry of U.S. warnings to Syria in recent days indicates that Washington has undertaken what Israel and its supporters here have been urging for months: a comprehensive reassessment of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad.
Sharon Aide Makes the Case For U.S. Action Against Syria
Forward -- April 18
By ORI NIR
WASHINGTON — Breaking the self-imposed silence it maintained during the buildup to the war with Iraq and throughout the war itself, Israel publicly called on the United States this week to take decisive action against Syria and Iran.
Making the case in Washington was Ephraim Halevy, Prime Minister Sharon's national security advisor, who formerly headed Israel's central intelligence agency, the Mossad. In meetings with senior administration officials, Halevy focused on Syria's weapons of mass destruction and — for the first time — on its young president, Bashar Assad, whom he described as inexperienced, irresponsible, arrogant and brash. Assad, said Halevy, is a potential source of instability in the region, warning that "a miscalculation on his part could have very serious consequences."
On both Iran and Syria, Halevy said: "There are so many measures short of war that could be employed in containing" both countries in their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and their backing of terrorism.
[Long article reviewing POW situation in Iraq, with coverage of infiltration of Iraq by militants from Syria.]
Fighters From Syria Among Iraqi Prisoners in an American Camp
The New York Times -- April 19
By BERNARD WEINRAUB
SOUTH OF BAGHDAD — In a bleak sun-baked desert field, surrounded by multiple layers of barbed wire, Iraqi prisoners climb off buses and are placed in a holding area for interrogation by military intelligence officers. Each prisoner will be photographed and a database will be searched for clues of his past.
At least three or four new prisoners a day are Syrian, and others are Palestinian, Sudanese or Jordanian. They are sometimes collectively referred to as Syrians here because many entered Iraq from Syria.
"They're obnoxious, arrogant, they have a vendetta," said Captain Murdock, who commands the National Guard unit from Phoenix. "You ask them why they were fighting in Iraq, and they say, `To kill Americans.' Others just say they came to die and kill Americans."
[Analysis of Syria's relationship with resistance/terrorist groups.]
With Iraq War Over, Wariness of U.S. Pervades Syria
Washington Post -- April 19
By Daniel Williams
DAMASCUS -- At a spartan three-story apartment building in a dusty suburb here, members of the Islamic Resistance Movement, known by its Arabic acronym Hamas, idled over sweet tea and wondered how long their stay would last. The Palestinian group, which in recent years has spearheaded attacks on civilians in Israel, has long maintained an office here. Now, its presence has become part of a diplomatic conflict between the Bush administration and the Syrian government of President Bashar Assad.
The United States views Hamas's office as evidence that Syria supports terrorism. It also cites the presence of Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian group, and Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim guerrilla organization that long fought Israeli occupation forces in south Lebanon. The Israelis pulled out three years ago after suffering casualties there for many years. The Bush administration also accuses Syria of possessing chemical weapons and of giving shelter to fugitives from the government of Saddam Hussein, the deposed Iraqi president.
[Commentary with some nice background links.]
On to Syria! - but not quite yet....
The Lincoln Plawg -- April 18
It's a measure of the ascendancy of the bellophiles in USG that a statement from Powell that the US has no plans to attack Syria is thought to be some kind of news.
via Stand Down
[Sample from an aggregation of regional press editorials.]
New Lebonese Cabinet Anachronistic
L’Orient-Le Jour (Beirut) via The Daily Star -- April 19
The birth of the fifth government headed by Rafik Hariri has received only lukewarm response from the Lebanese press. The new team was described by L’Orient-Le Jour as medieval, anachronistic and obsolete.
“The new government is completely out of phase with what is going on in the region,” the paper said.
At a time when democracy is either being forced on Iraq, the heart of the Arab world, or seeping in to some Gulf countries, “the Syrian tutors and their Lebanese disciples continue to resist” the democratic process. The two countries are “involved in a senseless struggle against the forces of history, common sense and the salvation of the two countries.”
Syrian President Bashar Assad has wasted a good opportunity for introducing reforms to his country’s politics with Lebanon, before introducing corresponding reforms to his country’s domestic politics, the paper added.
[Moderate words of support for Syria and "international law" from Lebanonese and Egyption governments -- followed by less moderate words from Sudan.]
The US accusations / Condemnations
Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) via Lebanon Press -- April 19
Lebanese President, Emil Lahoud has asserted Syria’s and Lebanon’s commitment to the principled stance on the bases of the international legitimacy resolutions.
Summary and Conjecture: The question has been posed to Assad
This past weekend the anti-Syria rhetoric from the Bush administration reached its high water mark. Since the appearance on Tuesday of the Guardian article asserting that Bush vetoed the invasion of Syria, the rhetoric has been settling down. Voices from the DoD and White House are muted or silent. Powell is the primary administration voice on Syria at this point. And Powell is mixing tough talk with conciliatory talk.
The US and Israel continue to back Abu Mazen as the new voice of Palestine, and must deliver some form of progress to the Palestinians to maintain Mazen's credibility. Significant progress won't come without security gains on the Israeli-Lebanese border, or Sharon will lose credibility with his own power base. Israel has signalled to the US with public comments that dismantling the organizations which threaten Israel from Lebanon would be enough to satisfy their concerns about a northern front.
Various voices in the US government and in the conservative media have suggested a Lebanon or Bekaa gambit instead of an full-scale invasion of Syria. A few days ago, I suggested that Bashar al-Assad might pull a Musharraf -- that faced with threats and incentives he would sell out his radical Hezbollah friends.
I believe that the question is still before Assad: sell out Hezbollah and be rehabilitated in the eyes of America, or stand by Hezbollah and suffer the political and economic wrath of the US.
I don't know enough about Lebanese politics to get a reading on the recent reshuffle of the cabinet. But stacking the cabinet with loyalists better prepares Assad to keep a grip on Lebanon whether he takes a confrontational or conciliatory stance towards the US.
[This commentary proposes using political means to take down the regimes in Iran and Syria. The Lebanese gambit is proposed as a method to weaken Assad.]
The end of the beginning
The Spectator -- April 12
Michael Ledeen
We should unleash the full panoply of political weapons on behalf of Lebanese freedom: a vigorous human-rights campaign, attention to the many stories of brutality and abuse coming from the lively Lebanese diaspora, political observers at every Lebanese election, demands for shutting down the infamous terrorist-training camps in the Bekaa Valley (where every terror group worthy of note has extensive facilities), investigations into the state of religious freedom, and so forth. Lebanese exiles should get special status, pending the liberation of their country.
via Salon via Tom Tomorrow
[Analysis of recent signals in Iranian-American relations and Syrian-American relations.]
Syria, Iran: has the US reshuffled priorities?
Al Jazeera -- April 19
Cilina Nasser
Iranian President Mohammad Khatami refrained from criticizing the US on Friday in a speech addressed to thousands of the Iranian armed forces, focusing on the brutality of the toppled Iraqi government.