Bill James on 60 minutes tonight.
Josh has some thoughts on a WaPo interview with Clinton. She appears to be saying she will stay in until the convention where she'll fight to try to seat Florida and Michigan. The conventional wisdom is that this drawn out democratic primary hurts the dems. But suddenly I'm not so sure.
My one horse race belief that hasn't changed throughout this entire show is that Clinton's negatives, while obviously quite high, are still under reported. A lot of people really hate her. It doesn't exactly make sense, but anecdotally this is what I have found. And it's why I've always been against nominating her (in a year when otherwise republican turnout might be quite low.)
But maybe her staying in the race actually helps Obama. Especially if it's real nasty and comes down to spilling some blood on the convention floor. Obviously this will dominate the news. And my new feeling is that all the Clinton haters out there will be drawn, like magic, into empathizing with Obama. This is going to be a lot of independent swing voters and center leaning republicans. They want to see Clinton go down. If they need to vote for McCain to do it, they will. But if Obama can do it, especially after a long fight in which it looks like she might actually pull it out, then he'll be the hero. And he really will have beaten her in a final way since I don't think she's viable in 2012 or 2016 if she really drags the party through this all the way to the convention. She's rolling the dice very big, burning all her bridges, and if she fails then it's over. I could even imagine her losing her Senate seat (okay, probably not.)
You can probably tell I haven't thought this through so much yet, but what do you think? Is Clinton hatred really that strong? Can a long fight with Obama actually rally people to his side rather than tear the party apart? The more outrageous, nasty, and underhanded her campaign appears to be, the better for Obama? He'll be the one who killed the wicked witch.
Again, note, I don't think *I* have Clinton Derangement Syndrome. I like all of her domestic policies. I'm just saying I think CDS is real, and can move a lot of votes one way or the other.
Or to say it all the other way: if Obama had won NH and just swept to the nomination, I think he'd inherit a lot of the anti-dem feelings that are out there. But since these anti-dem feelings have their strongest manifestation as anti-Clinton feelings, by engaging in a long bloody struggle and beating her Obama actually becomes a hero to these anti-dem forces and picks up a lot of middle ground votes that might otherwise have gone to McCain.
My one horse race belief that hasn't changed throughout this entire show is that Clinton's negatives, while obviously quite high, are still under reported. A lot of people really hate her. It doesn't exactly make sense, but anecdotally this is what I have found. And it's why I've always been against nominating her (in a year when otherwise republican turnout might be quite low.)
But maybe her staying in the race actually helps Obama. Especially if it's real nasty and comes down to spilling some blood on the convention floor. Obviously this will dominate the news. And my new feeling is that all the Clinton haters out there will be drawn, like magic, into empathizing with Obama. This is going to be a lot of independent swing voters and center leaning republicans. They want to see Clinton go down. If they need to vote for McCain to do it, they will. But if Obama can do it, especially after a long fight in which it looks like she might actually pull it out, then he'll be the hero. And he really will have beaten her in a final way since I don't think she's viable in 2012 or 2016 if she really drags the party through this all the way to the convention. She's rolling the dice very big, burning all her bridges, and if she fails then it's over. I could even imagine her losing her Senate seat (okay, probably not.)
You can probably tell I haven't thought this through so much yet, but what do you think? Is Clinton hatred really that strong? Can a long fight with Obama actually rally people to his side rather than tear the party apart? The more outrageous, nasty, and underhanded her campaign appears to be, the better for Obama? He'll be the one who killed the wicked witch.
Again, note, I don't think *I* have Clinton Derangement Syndrome. I like all of her domestic policies. I'm just saying I think CDS is real, and can move a lot of votes one way or the other.
Or to say it all the other way: if Obama had won NH and just swept to the nomination, I think he'd inherit a lot of the anti-dem feelings that are out there. But since these anti-dem feelings have their strongest manifestation as anti-Clinton feelings, by engaging in a long bloody struggle and beating her Obama actually becomes a hero to these anti-dem forces and picks up a lot of middle ground votes that might otherwise have gone to McCain.
I don't know for sure, but this sounds like an authentic blog from Baghdad detailing the fighting there for the last few days.
Alex was predicting this sort of meeting of the minds along time ago:
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia — head of one of the most oppressive regimes in the world — has said that atheism is a “frightening phenomenon that must be vanquished”. He made the threat during a speech in which he called for dialogue between all monotheistic religions.
"I ask representatives of all the monotheistic religions to meet with their brothers in faith," Abdullah told delegates to a seminar on "Dialogue Among Civilizations between Japan and the Islamic World," according to the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA). “If God wills it, we will then meet with our brothers from other religions, including those of the Torah and the Gospel... to come up with ways to safeguard humanity," he added.
A simple explanation for something I've wondered about:
Why, some wonder, is the U.S. closer to the Iran-backed ISCI and Badr Brigades than it is with the Sadrites? Why does this make sense? Two Baghdad political veterans have ruefully pointed out to Abu Muqawama that while Sadr has more popular support, the ISCI crowd have something more valuable: they speak English. One former State Department veteran with whom Abu Muqawama spoke a few months ago pointed out that former Iraq honcho Meghan O'Sullivan was particularly vulnerable to falling under the sway of those politicians who didn't just speak in that confusing gutteral language where they write from right to left in co-joined letters. Ergo: they speak English, so they must be our friends! Hoo-ray, democracy!
what a great idea. drawers in stairs.
Bush: Iraq is returning to normal.
Oh thank God, finally, Mission Accomplished.
Excellent work Mr. President.
What a whack job. He is clearly determined to stick rusty nails in our psyches to the very end.
Oh thank God, finally, Mission Accomplished.
Excellent work Mr. President.
What a whack job. He is clearly determined to stick rusty nails in our psyches to the very end.
I'll have one of each and a Pecan Catfish Meuniere and a Alligator Pie and a Crawfish Stuffed Puff and a Cajun Duck Po-Boy and a Pheasant, Quail & Andouille Gumbo and some Grilled Chicken Livers w/ Pepper Jelly to go.
i've tried a lot of boxed and premade foods, because when skinny is out i am not fussy about what i eat, if i make anything at all. these are really the only ones i've found that don't taste like something from a box. they are very yummy and we always have them in the cupboard. even skinny eats them. i recommend the agra peas & greens and the punjab eggplant. make a side of rice and dump it on top and dinner is ready. i finally got a rice cooker after wanting one for years, so this even becomes easier.
ralph 2008 "pick a winner"
Dick Cheney, who in 2005 told us that the insurgency was "in the last throes, if you will," was asked last week about polls showing that two-thirds of Americans don't think the fight in Iraq is worth it. Cheney's response: "So?"
(And Act 2, where Lieberman corrects McCain)
The 71-year-old McCain's recent misstatement that al-Qaeda terrorists were being aided by the Iranian regime -- quickly corrected by Sen. Joseph Lieberman in a whispered aside -- might have been simply a senior moment. Or it might have reflected an intention to do something precipitous about Iran's growing stature in the region. Either way, scary.
(And Act 2, where Lieberman corrects McCain)
The 71-year-old McCain's recent misstatement that al-Qaeda terrorists were being aided by the Iranian regime -- quickly corrected by Sen. Joseph Lieberman in a whispered aside -- might have been simply a senior moment. Or it might have reflected an intention to do something precipitous about Iran's growing stature in the region. Either way, scary.
hey ok
District B13 is sort of a French Escape from New York. The ending is a little soft but this chase scene is not too shabby.
Kurt Vonnegut's already been there.
im sure everyone will be knee-deep into ncaa bracketology all weekend but they might want to pause saturday night to catch jean renoirs The River on ovation tv despite the commercials and the outsized logo. or they could rent the criterion collection version.
and on the other end of the pop culture scale (or at least in my visual spectrum) futurama returns with a new movie on comedy central sunday night.
and somewhere in between those two poles lies the Wizard of Oz which runs on tcm saturday night and sunday afternoon.
oh yeah, East of Eden is on pbs in new york on saturday night.
REEL 13 film descriptions
March 22: East of Eden and Imaginary Heroes
Reel 13 Classic: East of Eden (1955) 115 min.
Based on John Steinbeck’s novel and directed by Elia Kazan, East of Eden is the first of three major films that make up James Dean’s movie legacy. The 24-year-old idol-to-be plays Cal, a wayward Salinas Valley youth who vies for the affection of his hardened father (Raymond Massey) with his favored brother Aron (Richard Davalos). Playing off the haunting sensitivity of Julie Harris, Dean’s performance earned one of the film’s four Academy Award nominations. Among the movie’s stellar performers, Jo Van Fleet won the Oscar as Best Supporting Actress.
and i want to check out at least a few minutes of Somersault starring abbie cornish tonight at 10 on sundance channel. i thinks shes got some, uhh, talent. and jane campion agrees!
and on the other end of the pop culture scale (or at least in my visual spectrum) futurama returns with a new movie on comedy central sunday night.
and somewhere in between those two poles lies the Wizard of Oz which runs on tcm saturday night and sunday afternoon.
oh yeah, East of Eden is on pbs in new york on saturday night.
REEL 13 film descriptions
March 22: East of Eden and Imaginary Heroes
Reel 13 Classic: East of Eden (1955) 115 min.
Based on John Steinbeck’s novel and directed by Elia Kazan, East of Eden is the first of three major films that make up James Dean’s movie legacy. The 24-year-old idol-to-be plays Cal, a wayward Salinas Valley youth who vies for the affection of his hardened father (Raymond Massey) with his favored brother Aron (Richard Davalos). Playing off the haunting sensitivity of Julie Harris, Dean’s performance earned one of the film’s four Academy Award nominations. Among the movie’s stellar performers, Jo Van Fleet won the Oscar as Best Supporting Actress.
and i want to check out at least a few minutes of Somersault starring abbie cornish tonight at 10 on sundance channel. i thinks shes got some, uhh, talent. and jane campion agrees!
the end of history.....channel.
